Factories plan to produce less

Exports reached 22,937 units, down 28.1% compared to June, and 1% year-on-year.

In the official statement, they justified this setback because several plants were affected by the winter break. That explanation is correct, although it is good to clarify that the licenses granted to personnel were motivated by the underlying problem, which is the lack of supplies. With the delays in the delivery of many national models and the export requirements, a way could have been found to stagger the licenses.

In many cases, shortages are due to issues that affect everyone, such as the lack of semiconductors. To this we must add the logistical problems of international trade that still continue to affect industries, but we must add to all the difficulties our own evils. The lack of dollars and, consequently, the obstacles to import. This complicates the automakers and the entire production chain. The problems faced by auto parts manufacturers are already known.

Several terminals are cutting production pace or intermittently suspending manufacturing. It is a way of rationing the components. The other issue is the number of unfinished units that have to be pulled off the assembly line due to missing parts.

“The issue is very complicated. It is analyzed week by week how it is done so as not to stop. Not month to month. We are all trying not to stop and, for that, the alternative is to produce less. That the pieces endure for more days. How long will this last? It is not known. For this reason, each one is looking at how to manage supplies because, it must be said, no one wants to be the first to announce a factory shutdown because it is going to get all the attention from the media,” said a terminal manager.

Given this scenario, the outlook is delicate. Already in ADEFA they cut production projections for this year. Of the 590,000 units that were expected to be manufactured in 2022, according to calculations made at the end of 2021, today it is estimated that the number will fall to 510,000. That is, 80,000 0 km less. The same happens with exports. Eight months ago, the foreign sales horizon pointed to 360,000 vehicles. Now, the most optimistic calculation that they handle in the industrial entity is 300,000, although they do not rule out that it falls to 280,000.

“There are more problems than automakers whitewash. For this reason, the drop in production and exports is greater than imagined,” they told Ámbito from the sector.

There is another problem with exports, as a result of the obstacles to importing vehicles.

In the last two months, the approved import permits – the famous SIMIs – were less than those that the companies and the Government had agreed upon. In the sector they understand that the departure of Martín Guzmán, the arrival of Silvina Batakis and her ephemeral management, plus the arrival of a new economic team caused decisions to be paralyzed. The concrete thing is that they let import less than 0 km. This affects sales abroad.

“If you don’t have cars to bring, you have to allocate more national units to the local market instead of exporting them because the network needs to invoice” they explained from an automaker.

If the first seven months of 2021 are taken and compared with the first years of the previous government, it is seen that production and exports are, for now, slightly above the records of that time. In contrast, the domestic market shows a sharp drop. This year will close with half the number of patents than in 2017. Given the lack of dollars, companies have to get their own foreign currency and they do this by increasing exports. Therefore, production grew, compared to five years ago, despite the decline in domestic sales.

The problem is that the local market lost much of its imported supply. Although the companies maintain the business since what they stop selling internally, they compensate with more external sales, the one who loses out is the Argentine consumer who, given the lower supply, must pay very expensive and overpriced 0 km.