Cars: due to the drop in the blue, September began with a slowdown in sales

September started off busy for the automotive sector. On the one hand, with the recovery in sales recorded in August, the climate of greater optimism for the rest of the year was consolidated, after a tough start to 2024.

It is true that many times, through discounts, the consumer could find lower transaction prices from one month to the next, but what is new is that the reduction occurred in list prices.

This situation led brands – almost all of them – to publish lists with reduced prices in September.

But there is a third factor that, due to Argentine habits, may be more important for the functioning of the market. That data is the fall that has been registered the “blue” dollar in recent weeks and especially in recent days, where it broke the $1,300 floor.

Although many transactions are made by buyers who deal exclusively in pesos, the exchange rate issue is key for this market. If the gap between the official dollar and the parallel dollar widens, demand grows. When it narrows, demand falls.

This is what is happening in these first days of September. Although the beginning of the month is always calm, this time the effect of what is happening in the financial market is already being felt.

In a survey conducted among several agencies of different brands, opinions coincide in a cooling of operations.

“Everything is very calm. People stop making purchases when the blue rate drops. It’s that simple,” acknowledged the owner of several dealerships of different brands in the province of Buenos Aires.

“It’s a weak start to the month for tickets. The expectation of lower prices and the drop in the blue rate means that we don’t have many transactions. We’ll see how the month goes,” said the manager of a Nissan dealership in Capital.

Tickets are current sales, while patenting show previously closed transactions.

The same responses were repeated in the rest of the brands.

Obviously, this situation reduces the profitability of the dealerships, which is exacerbated by the price reductions imposed by the terminals due to the change in the PAÍS Tax.

“The price cuts imposed by the factories have reduced our capital. The cars we bought last month are worth less today. Some dealerships that are not financially sound may have problems,” explained the owner of a Toyota dealership.

The other important point is that the drop in the “blue” rate weakens the momentum that could have been given by the reduction in prices. New cars are more affordable, but the purchasing power of those who have dollars has also been reduced.

“Even though it is good news for the economy, for the automotive market, a drop in the dollar is not the best thing. With the better prices we have now, we thought that the buyer would respond, but if the blue rate drops, it is a tie. There is no benefit,” assured a Peugeot dealership.

There is another fact to bear in mind. As it is already known that the PAÍS tax will be eliminated at the end of December (now lowered from 17.5% to 7.5%), the agencies say that there are many people who are speculating on this in order to wait to buy.

“Eliminating the tax in stages is not the best thing for the market. Since people saw that prices fell in September and know that in December it will be completely removed, they are betting that prices will fall again. So, those who are not in a hurry may decide to wait. That could affect part of the market.”said the owner of a Ford dealership.

Despite this start with so many variables, September is expected to be a month with a market of around 38,000 units, between cars and light commercial vehicles, which could approach 40,000 if heavy vehicles are added.

If this figure is achieved, it would be the best September in terms of sales in six years. It would easily exceed the 33,000 transactions of the same month last year (obviously also those of 2022, 2021 and 2020) and would be above the 36,600 of September 2019. Only in 2018 is there a higher volume when 52,711 patents were registered.