Science has determined which factor has had the greatest impact on the climate over the past 485 million years

A team of experts in climatologyheaded by Emily Judd from the University of Arizona and the Smithsonianhas gathered more than 150,000 fossil records along with Advanced climate models to reconstruct Earth’s average global temperatures over the past 480 million years. This analysis covers the appearance of multicellular organisms in the Phanerozoic Eon. The findings show that although the Earth has been much warmer in the past, Never before has there been such a rapid increase in temperature as the current one.

What the analysis reveals about the global climate

The study, published on September 20, 2024 in the magazine Scienceemphasizes the importance of examining global average land surface temperature (GMST) over the past 485 million years to understand the factors that influence climate. Jesse Smith, editor of the report, stresses that The relationship between plant and animal life and weather patterns has been decisive in the evolution of the climate.According to the study led by Judd, GMST has ranged from 11°C to 36°C, with a climate sensitivity of approximately 8°C, which is two to three times higher than today.

This geological record provides key information to understand past climate cycles and contextualize current climate change. In addition, it helps to refine our knowledge about the relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and climate sensitivitywhich is critical for improving future predictions of man-made warming.

The study highlights that CO2 has been the dominant factor in regulating the climate during the Phanerozoic, overcoming the influence of increased solar luminosity. Although this increase in radiation was expected to have a significant effect on climate over time, planetary albedo and other greenhouse gases, such as methane, helped balance the impact of increased solar radiation.

Consequences of the study for the future climate

Historical analysis suggests that the Drastic changes in temperature are linked to critical events on Earth, such as mass extinctions. An example is the extinction event 250 million years ago, when volcanic eruptions released huge amounts of CO2, causing a rise of more than 10°C in global temperature in about 50,000 years.

The most alarming thing, according to researchers, is that Never in the last 485 million years has the Earth experienced such rapid warming as it is currently experiencing. The speed of current climate change exceeds even the most dramatic episodes in geological history, raising serious concerns about the ability of ecosystems and species, including humans, to adapt.

Consequences for humanity

The study stresses that while life on Earth has survived in much warmer climates, humans evolved in one of the coldest periods of the Phanerozoic, with average temperatures of up to 11°C. Now, We face the possibility of temperatures rising to 17°C by the end of this century if immediate action is not taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.Such a high level of warming has not been recorded since the Miocene, more than 5 million years ago.

Emily Judd warns that while human-caused warming will not push Earth beyond habitable limits, it will create a unprecedented climate scenario for our species, with potentially devastating consequences for ecosystems and human communitiesHuman civilization has developed in a cold climate context, so such an abrupt change could generate unpredictable impacts on infrastructure, agriculture, biodiversity and quality of life.

This study is a clear reminder of the Urgency of action against climate change. Although the Earth has experienced warmer climates in its history, Current warming is extremely rapid, and both humans and other species may not have enough time to adapt to the new conditions.As Judd concludes, life on Earth will continue, but the big unknown is What form will that life take and what will survival look like in an increasingly warm world?.