GDP will suffer a contraction of 3.1% this year, according to private estimates

Private measurements agree in maintaining that GDP will have contracted by at least 3% in 2024. It should be noted that the latest official data was published on Friday, and showed that the economic activity registered a drop of 3.3% in September, compared to 2023 and 0.3% compared to August.

For the ACM consulting firm, the fall in GDP in 2024 will have accumulated 3.1% once the year is over. For this report, if the last quarter of the year remains at the same level observed during the current quarter, economic activity would contract by 3.1%.

“Forward, The recent reactivation of credit should be a key factor in boosting economic activitydriven mainly by higher consumption. Added to this is the incipient recovery of real wages, which could contribute positively to greater growth dynamics,” they expressed.

From LCG, for their part, they agree on the number raised. “We believe that for the remainder of the year the path will be weak growth, with slight monthly increases and a wide sectoral disparity“, they expressed and asserted that for them there would be a drop in activity of 3.1%, above what was foreseen in the Budget.

“Salaries that began a recomposition in real terms since March/April still do not finish driving consumptionpossibly because they start from very low levels,” they added and added: “We support the idea that the RIGI would have a medium-term macroeconomic impact on some specific sectors, which already enjoy high margins.”

And they continued: “Which will react to the benefits offered with investments of magnitude (but with limited macro effect). However, and“The effect of money laundering may generate certain mobilization (due to the push for loans and private placements), but it will not be a determining factor in greater growth.”.

“We estimate that real GDP would have fallen 3.2% in 2024 given the contraction in the first months of the year. By 2025, we continue to maintain that the dynamics of activity will not be able to exhibit sustained upward behavior as long as the current exchange controls persist,” said the chief economist of the SBS GroupJuan Manuel Franco.

Finally, from the consultancy Epyca They highlighted that the economic program “generated a fierce recession, of 6% year-on-year on average for the year, for the sectors most oriented to the domestic market; and with severe falls in household incomes.”

September EMAE: what it left us

The economic activity registered a fall of 3.3% in September, compared to 2023 and 0.3% compared to August, a figure worse than expected by the market, as reported last Friday by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC).

Mining and agriculture continued to drive activity, while construction and consumption failed to rebound.

“In general terms, the September result implies a slight setback after two consecutive months where the estimator showed signs of recovery in seasonally adjusted terms,” ​​they explained from ACM.