The industry showed a slight improvement in November, but accumulated 18 consecutive year-on-year falls

The manufacturing industry improved slightly in Novembercompared to the previous month, but in interannual terms it accumulated a consecutive year and a half with falls. In this way, the sector continued without recovering the level of production prior to the assumption of Javier Milei as president.

The seasonally adjusted series of INDEC manufacturing Industrial Production Index (IPI) showed a monthly increase of 0.4%. However, the figure was lower than that of September, which is why in the last three months there has been a virtual stagnation in the recovery process.

“It must be taken into account that the seasonally adjusted index are having difficulty recovering the November 2023 level. In the last four months, it had a marginal growth of just 0.9%,” detailed the consulting firm LCG.

The industry fell again in annual terms, but improvements are expected for December

Compared to November 2023, a contraction of 1.7% was recordedthe 18th in a row. Even so, the decline was the most limited in a year and it is expected that in December the sector will be able to show a rebound, given the very low comparison base since December 2023 coincided with the devaluation, which generated a strong collapse in the economic activity.

Only four industrial categories presented year-on-year increases in their production: Food and beverages (+8.4%), Machinery and equipment (+7.2%), Oil refining (+1.5%) and Other equipment, appliances and instruments (+3.4%). At the far end, The main losses that had the most impact on the general IPI were those of Non-metallic mineral products (-20%), Rubber and plastic products (-16.2%) and Metal products (-13%).

In the last three areas mentioned, the collapse was closely linked to the crisis that the construction sector went through in the last year. Indeed, the Synthetic Indicator of Construction Activity (ISAC), also published by INDEC, had a year-on-year decrease of 23.6% in the month under analysis.

Facing DecemberLCG pointed out that so far there is only advance data on automotive production (ADEFA), with a growth of just 0.1%, although the positive consumption indicators could drive a greater increase. In that context, The consulting firm estimated a monthly advance of 2% and a favorable interannual variation of 9.5%.