The S&P Merval sinks almost 3% but the country risk is located at 580 points, awaiting key data

He S&P Merval sinks this Monday, January 13, while the country risk He is on his way to recovering 600 points. This happens due to the negative influence of Wall Streetthe expected profit takingand after the evaluation of the IMF about Argentina.

In that framework, the local selective It sinks 3.9% to 2,694,390.30 basis points. The leading stocks that fall the most are: BBVA Bank (-6.8%), Edenor (-6%) and Cablevision (-5.9%).

“I estimate that we were coming from a very strong rally of increases and it is good to have profit-taking, although outside the market, especially the technology ones, are very weak,” he explained to ScopeLeonard Svirsky.

For their part, from Max Capital, they analyzed: “The IMF praised the government policy of the Milei government, although the government was disagree with the comment that fiscal policy was the main pillar of the disinflation effort. The government added that the monetary target and the 2% crawling peg were key instruments.”

“The implementation schedule and the exchange rate scheme will likely be two sensitive topics in the current discussions about a new program.a, with the government demanding advance resources and powers to intervene in the exchange rate,” they expanded.

Regarding the international context, the New York stock market opened lower on Monday, before inflation data in the United States that could fuel the idea of ​​a pause in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed, central bank).

What data will the market look at this week

Thus, investors will focus this week on the inflation data from last December. It should be noted that President Javier Milei anticipated that if the price increase remains below 2.5%, The Central Bank (BCRA) would begin to reduce the adjustment of the official dollar to 1% monthly, so that it converges with inflation with the CPI.

As a preview, the CPI of the City of Buenos Aires (CABA), published last Thursday, stood at 3.3% monthly, which represented a slight acceleration of 0.1 points compared to the previous November. For the BCRA Expectations survey, inflation for the last month of 2024 will be 2.7%.

In turn, “the market will be very attentive on Wednesday to the result of the first debt tender in pesos of the year for the Treasury, in which it could give new signals for the interest rate,” highlighted Bell Bursátil.

In relation to economic activity, INDEC will release on Wednesday the report on the Utilization of Installed Capacity in Industry (UCII) for Novemberwhile on Friday it will present the Construction Cost Index (ICC) and the Wholesale Price Index System (SIPM) for December.

Finally, the Ministry of Economy will publish the fiscal result for December at the end of the week.

Bonds and country risk

The dollar bonds are trading with strong generalized declines of up to 2.8% on the part of the Bonar 2041followed by the Global 2038 (-2.3%), and the Bonar 2039 (-2%). He country riskthe index that measures the JP Morgan It is located at 580 points.