Analysts expect economic activity to grow next year, after the strong recession that the country experienced in the first half of 2024.
Waiting for the INDEC publish the data of the Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE) corresponding to November, a private report estimates that GDP closed 2024 with a contraction of 2.4%. For its part, the latest Market Expectations Survey (REM) projects an average drop of 2.6%. But what is expected for 2025?
According to the more than 40 analysts participating in the Market Expectations Survey (REM), an average growth of 4.5% is estimated for 2025, while the group of the 10 main projections calculates an increase of 3.8%. According to the consulting firm Econviews, directed by Miguel Kiguel, 2024 closed with a drop of 2.5%. However, the impact was not uniform in all sectors, which is why the consulting firm highlights which will experience the greatest growth in 2025.
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Economic activity: which sectors can have a good boost in 2025
- Mining and oil: Mining activity grew and employment also grew, adding 400 more registered workers. In the case of Vaca Muerta, a 40% increase in activity is expected compared to 2024 and they estimate that the energy surplus will also increase in 2025.
- Sectors that benefit from imported goods: such as agriculture and the auto parts sector. It improves productivity because it offers the possibility of importing capital goods and inputs at a lower cost.
- Construction: Econviews estimates that the growth of this sector will be around 2.6% given the statistical drag and expects it to exceed those levels “but at a slow pace.”
- Trade: Inflation at low levels and the increase in the supply of credit to individuals will continue to drive consumption, according to the Econviews analysis.
- Hotels and restaurants: The sector is beginning to show signs of recovery after the fall in the two quarters of 2024, but the exchange rate situation is putting pressure on it.
Source: Ambito
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