Low of withholdings: how it impacts the market and what will be the actions with the greatest rise potential

This Monday The tax decrease in the agricultural sector began to be governed with which it will be sought Accelerate grain settlement and add reservations. In this way, they will resign about US $ 800 million with collection for this new regulation that will be valid until the middle of the year.

Thus, this modification will be Until June 30 in which the withholdings will be lowered to the soywhich will go from 33 to 26% and their Derivativeswhich will fall from 31% to 24.5%. Withholdings for the wheat (12 to 9.5%), the barley (12 to 9.5%), the corn (12 to 9.5%), the sunflower (7 to 5.5%) and sorghum (12 to 9.5%).

While it was announced last week, The measure was published this morning in the Official Gazette. In this way both the ARK and like him Central Bank will be responsible for controlling the deadlines of settlement. The market, meanwhile, already analyzes that there will be An impact not only the finance of the BCRA and the Treasury, but also in the stock markets.

In talk with Scope, Marianela GayáChief Economist in Formulate advisorshe said: “short -term, The temporary cut in export rights will generate a mixed impact. On the one hand, it is expected that The Treasury benefits from the advancement of liquidationswhile The Central Bank would benefit both for a greater supply of foreign exchange in the Mulc and Financial Dollars in the CCL via Blendwhich could imply some calm in them. “

On the other, he explained that he will imply A loss of collection that could result in a “Unfair due to the transfer at internal prices in foods derived from crops such as flours and oils. “

However, the expert also described that The rise in the effective exchange rate for producers will serve to improve their margins since the sector has been punished by climatic factors with the presence of the phenomenon “The girl”, increased their costs in dollars and low prices in the domestic market reflection of the international fall in the price of commodities since December 2023.

Low of withholdings: what companies that will be benefited

Mariela Brandolinconsultant in FINANCIAL GRANE AND INVESTMENT MARKETin talk with this medium, he recalled that the five companies that rose the most after the news of the withdrawal (DEX) in Argentina were known: Agrometal (Agro), Molinos Agro (Mola), Molinos Rio de la Plata (Moli), San Miguel (Sami) and Ledesma (LEDE).

And he recommended: “If we want to invest in companies that could benefit from the decline of these withholdings, in addition to those mentioned, we can also find companies such as Cresud (Cres) and Adecoagro (ADGO). It should be clarified that beyond that these companies could benefit from the novelty, It is important to analyze the financial details of each one to obtain a complete evaluation before investing“

Marianela Gayáon the other hand, it agreed, to maintain that “some of the outstanding companies that quote in the capital market and could eventually receive a tail wind in favor are Cresud (CRES) and Molinos Agro (Mola); However, and because the measure is transient, it will be key to closely follow the evolution of the price of Agricultural commodities “.

Soybean, corn and wheat: how they are traded in the Chicago market

The futures of the soy and the corn Americans fell on Friday from maximum of several months in the Chicago market after the government announced the reduction of grain export taxes, since This fed the expectations that the United States must face a harder competition for sales in the world market.

This Monday, soy Cbot It falls again, in this case, 1.2% and quotes au $ s383.51 a ton. For its part, the contract of corn More active in the Chicago Stock Exchange (CBOT) Low 1.6% AU $ S188.58 a ton, after having reached on Thursday its highest level in more than a year. For its part, the wheat Cbot It also decreases 2.1% au $ s195.75, the ton.