Building to the dollar: the market analyzes a triple government play and recalculates the end of restrictions

The reduction of withholdings, the exchange of debt and advances in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)were some of the spearheads that market analysts took to think about what time the exit of the exchange rate could be completed.

For the Stock Society Max Capitalall these advances represent a crucial step towards the elimination of exchange control. As highlighted in a report, these initiatives show A coherent strategy to face the exchange and tax challenges of the country.

From this broker they also stressed that the loss of withholdingsnot only respond to a historical demand in the sector in a stronger currency context and low prices, but also seek Prevent the anticipated collection of products from the expectation of a exchange adjustment after the elections.

“These decisions aim to avoid exchange pressures at a critical moment, while an agreement with the IMF is negotiated,” said Max Capital. In addition, society indicated that The measure has a short -term strategic character, since its validity is until June, which coincides with the electoral calendar.

When it comes to bond pack, he said that “It reflects the need to postpone maturities and minimize financial risks before elections”. The structure of dual bonds, which guarantee the maximum between a fixed rate and a variable, offers some protection to investors, which could facilitate the acceptance of the proposal.

According to the firm, the exchange is also aligned with the ongoing negotiations with the IMF. Max Capital stressed that an agreement with the international agency could include a financing package for US $ 11,000 million, which would be crucial to guarantee liquidity and address the deficits of the Central Bank before eliminating exchange controls.

However, the stock company society warned about the challenges of achieving the approval of this Agreement in Congress, since the government does not have a parliamentary majority. “The political panorama will be decisive for the implementation of these policies”, concluded.

Congiary Standing: Would the exit be gradual?

For the consultant Fernando Marull and Associates (Fmya) The transition It would be “gradual” to avoid abrupt jump in the exchange rate. The first condition would be to achieve a inflation Objective that is located around 1.5% monthly and the second would be to balance the monetary base.

It should be noted that, currently, the monetary base is at $ 30 billion, while the broad monetary base (which includes the LELIQ, the passes and tester deposits in pesos) amounts to $ 46 billion.

According to the consulting firm, The monetary base should increase by 50%, that is, some additional $ 17 billion, to meet this requirement. “This could be achieved in 2026, if the re -monetization of the economy is maintained,” the report said.