About 50 local and abroad banks and consultants They improved their projections for the growth of the Argentine economythe evolution of inflation and anticipated that the Wholesale dollar will reach $ 1,388 At the end of the year, just above $ 1,330 that had planned a month ago.
For its part, the blue dollar would be located in $ 1379. By 2026, they expect contributions from $ 1568 and $ 1592, respectively. The price they anticipated for the official dollar is closer to the ceiling of the exchange band, which in December will reach the $ 1528 and will have a $ 915 floor.
Regarding inflation, Latinfocus it expects that in 2025 it will accumulate a 28.6%1.5 points above its last projection, although by 2026 it estimates an important decline, with a total 17.9%.
Another economic data that anticipated for the remainder of the year is GDP. The average of the consultants in the report indicate that 5% will grow this year (an improvement of 0.1 points compared to last month) and a 3.4% in 2026.
Evolution of the dollar: what do banks and consultants anticipate
One of the central points that the government’s macroeconomic policy will define is the evolution of the exchange rate. Last month’s projections anticipated a lower increase but in the last survey, the consultants provided that it will reach the $ 1,388.
The director of the consulting firm Eco Go, Sebastián Menescaldi: “We change the scenario. We see that the government will have to recalibrate after elections. This implies looking underwent the external sectorwith a slightly more depreciated exchange rate, all depending on the global context. If oil and soy continue to rise, perhaps this is not necessary”
In that sense, he added: “There is true Important expectations anchor And the Pass-Through is lower. Beyond that, We understand that the rearrangement of the exchange rate would be done at the beginning of 2026. The $ 1338 contemplates a reduced rise in monthly inflation in the remainder of the year. ”
For his part, Alejandro Giacoia, from Econviews, considered that the dollar could begin to move more now than the positive seasonality of the harvest and the electoral campaign approaches, although it will remain inside the flotation band. As for inflation, he said that from now on he could become more difficult to continue going down from these levels, although it is not impossible. “The trend is decreasing, Although the road is not linear month by month, ”he closed.
On this point, the director of C&T economic advisors, Camilo Tiscorniahe said that the evolution of April inflation and, above all, May’s were better than expected, after the Government reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the exchange rate was flexible.
“I imagine this edition of Latinfocus It has a downward review due to the April data, which was thought to be much higher than the 2.8% that was, and it is very likely that it comes down again next month with the May number. The vast majority thought that monthly inflation was going to be above 2% and ended up being 1.5%, ”he said.
Source: Ambito
