The official exchange rate fell to $ 1,160 in the last two wheels, but seasonality and three key factors open doubts towards the second half of the year.
The demand for dollars will grow in the second semester and will do it beyond seasonal factors. This is confirmed by private consultants by taking into account the sustained growth of imports, purchases for treasurement, the emisive tourism boom and the electoral factor. The cereals accelerated the liquidation of currencies before the imminent rise of retentions and the dollar collapsed in the last two wheels. The Government will seek to cover the current account deficit with financing, but the strategy generates doubts in the market.
The slowdown in inflation is the main political asset of the libertarian administration and the general elections are coming. In that framework, Exchange stability remains a fundamental pillar for Javier Milei’s plans. The still dollar was key for the wholesale prices of the imported ones to have shown a 4% setback during the month of May and the CPI measured by INDEC has slowed to the lowest point since 2020.
From the hand of the disbursement of the International Monetary Fund, of a repo that carried out the Central Bank and the placement of debt in the market and with other agencies, The economic team managed to position international reserves above the US $ 40,100 million. But the road is not exempt from difficulties. Analysts warn that currency demand will grow in the second half of the year and can affect the exchange rate.
“In the second semester the demand for currencies will be increased, with peaks in July and August for the dollarization of bonuses and tourism in winter vacation. In turn, the treasure faces debt maturities for US $ 4.5 billion, ”explained the economist and partner of Analytica Ricardo Delgado.
In that line, he said that “The increase in import payments, especially consumer goods and capital goods due to exchange appreciation and commercial opening will play a central role”. In this last category, he registered the tax decline in electronics, the flexibility in the importation of cosmetics and in capital goods used, among others.
Where will the dollar go?
The official dollar collapsed about $ 40 in the last two days. He closed this Wednesday’s wheel at $ 1,160. The fall in the price responded to the enormous influx of currencies from the agroindustrial complex. It is estimated that before the imminent rise of retentions the sector stepped on the accelerator and liquidated about US $ 200 million per day.
However, for the vector director, Haroldo Montagú, there will be “difficulties” to maintain exchange parity: “In structural terms, in the second half of the year reservations are always disarm, because in the first you have the settlement of agriculture, but also this year there was a strong currency entry on the financial account that will not be seen in the same magnitude,” he told this medium.
For the economist, The unification of exports in the official market and the improvements in the energy balance that Vaca Muerta brings will not compensate for the greatest seasonal demand, That this year is enhanced by the return of the savers to the change market, the exchange rate appreciation and the deregulation of the trade, which deepened the deficit in the services account and the growth of imports.
Source: Ambito
