The economist Luis Secco warned that the government can have problems in 2026 If you fail to lower the country risk enough, by questioning the strategy of the economic team to take new debt to add reservations instead of buying dollars in the market.
“I think that If the country risk remains at these levelswhen from next year the important maturities begin, It will not be easy for the market to appear ”, Secco explained in statements to Scope.
The economist questioned the strategy of the economic team which decided to deploy a whole financial engineering to obtain the dollars committed to the April Agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
In July Argentina You will have to face maturities for US $ 5,000 million and that will be paid with a new indebtedness, before the warnings of analysts and consultants in the sense that the Banco Central should have bought dollars to add international reserves (RIN).
Secco said that next year, if you do not lower the risk, “The market is going to ask why Argentina is paying that level of rates“, To which the government will argue that”made an unpublished fiscal and monetary orderthat the economy bounced from the recession and that inflation is falling. ”
The market trusts but asks what you are going to pay
In that sense, the analyst indicated that “The market will trust that the government wants to pay, but you will ask what you will pay. ” For the professional “the bet is that he does very well in the electionsand that finally Gatille the change in expectations that still did not take place. ”
One of the most weight arguments in favor of the official strategy is that The purchase of dollars by the Treasury or the Central Bank to nurture the RIN implies injecting pesos, which means inflationary risk If it is not absorbed by the demand for money from the public.
In this regard, Secco said that in countries where reservations are bought, “If they see that there is a monetary excess, they do open market operations like any central bank. ”
Doubts about “rent” reservations
The consultant Vector maintains that indebtedness “is the cause of the suspicion of foreign investors and what He wonders why so much gunpowder was spent on the sanitation of the BCRA balance (US $ 20 billion fresh dollars of the IMF) if immediately begins to deteriorate from the future (and close) obligations ”.
“The problem is the same as always: If the only mechanism to get dollars is indebtedness, those same holders will sue more and more dollars In the future, incubating growing pressures on the international reserves of the BCRA, which could only be drawn with a indebtedness that grows exponentially, ”says vector.
A support for the official strategy
The economist Maximiliano Gutiérrez, of the Institute of Economic Research for Argentina and Latin American Reality (IERAL) It is less rude with the official strategy. His hypothesis is based on the fact that there would be no demand for money that could absorb the weights that would imply buying reservations in the market.
“Currently the treasure has $ 12.1 billion deposited in the BCRA, But we must not forget that at the end of April the monetary authority turned profits from the previous year for $ 11.7 billion, ”recalls Gutiérrez.
The Ieral economist warns that “If these pesos are used to buy dollars, it implies re -injected into the economy, which translates into an increase in the monetary base. ”
Gutierrez considers that in If the government decided to buy reservations, it should “play it” that the injection of weights does not go at prices. A fact would suggest that it could do it and that is that with inflation at levels of 2% monthly The monetary base in Argentina was 8.5% and 9% of GDP while now 4% of GDP. That difference of between 4 and 5 points could involve genuine demand for pesos.
“The fact that Official exchange rate remains relatively stable In recent times it generates Questions about how much space is left for the demand for money to absorb the issuance associated with the purchase of dollarsat least in the short term, ”he explained.
Source: Ambito
