When some voices appear in the market that question the lack of accumulation of “genuine” reserves from the Central Bank, from the Palace of Finance it is used as a banner the budget “health” policy that President Javier Milei has been taking from the first day.
Recently arrived in Buenos Aires, the head of the IMF mission, the Nepalese bikas Joshi, He met with the Minister of EconomyLuis Caputo, to analyze the progress of the program agreed in April this year. The holder of the Treasury will show him that he is going on the way Achieve the fiscal surplus goal planned for September, $ 9.3 billion.
Until now, in the First five months of the year, Caputo managed to accumulate a surplus of $ 6.9 billionaccording to estimates from the Argentine Political Economy Center (CEPA). To reach the goal would only have to maintain A monthly average of $ 600,000 million balance in favor.
And that was achieved despite the fact that the government has been losing tax resources this year. The problem was May. Until that time the Executive had been obtaining a real increase in income, but the lousy performance of the income tax of that month blurred the achievements.
“The national tax collection of the first five months of the year, given the real decline of the collection of May Profit Tax, would have increased by 1% real interannual. As of April, the real year -on -year increase was 7.6%, “highlights the Argentine Fiscal Analysis Institute (Iaraf).
In terms of real year variation, in the first five months of the year taxes with greater fall (without taking into account the elimination of country tax) would have been personal goods (-33.4%), export rights (-18.5%), profits (-2%) and internal taxes (-0.3%).
The taxes with the greatest increase would have been the fuel tax (103.8%), Social Security (28%) and check tax (13.5%).
The iaraf details that “to dimension the impact of the real profit drop in May, it can be remembered that In the first four months the collection of profits had been growing by 37% real year -on -year and total tax collection by 7.6% real year. “
“If the collection of the income tax is excluded, the total collection would have increased 1.7% in real interannual terms,” says the consultant.
Milei comes out again with the chainsaw
In that context, It is not surprising that President Javier Milei went out to ask the ministers of his cabinet to pass a list with new adjustments.
It is something that could fall as Maduro if the first article of the 2025 budget project is remembered, which was not approved by Congress, and established the cutting rule in the same proportion in which resources were lost.
What would be the doubts for the IMF
It is clear that a few days after starting a new program the credit agency He does not have the slightest will to enter disputes with the Argentine government, although this does not comply with the entire plan agreed to the letter.
One of the elements to be taken is that the Fiscal surplus It is a tiny part of the payments that the country has to make per year. According to a report by the Qual Daniel Marx, the surplus explains only 2% of the maturities per year.
Both the IMF and the markets in general, They are looking at Javier Milei’s exchange front front, in which the balance of payments has become negative. The fiscal surplus does not automatically translate into a “competitive” exchange rate.
But, the other issue is that strictly Javier Milei’s fiscal surplus only depends on the president’s political will to maintain it. It is not something structural. Then it is very likely that Joshi begins to ask Caputo about the march of the “reforms”, that allow the national state to be handled with less resources.
Source: Ambito
