From the flexibility of the stocks, in mid -April, until now, the question has been put on how much the exchange rate could endure without major oscillations that put the inflationary deceleration in check. However, dollar wholesaler advanced 7% in that period. Julio could combine a series of yellow alerts that would attempt against that path, although slightly.
The beginning of the second semester brings some warnings that fall on exchange stability. This is what the market understands. Even more than the consensus of the financial actors is that It is not sustainable to talk about a possible exchange crisisit is true that they detect factors that could put in exchange rate tension.
According to the consultant Lambdaboth the drivers of the current account (foreign trade and tourism) and those of the financial account (formation of external assets of human persons) “They could generate increases in the exchange rate”On the eve of the mid -term elections.
For this reason, the real exchange rate in historical terms is: “It is located at relatively low levels and practically equal to the minimum of Macri management reached in April 2017”Indicates the consultant directed by Maximiliano Ramírez.
Taking even greater perspective, Lambda calculates that the exchange rate is at the lowest level from the end of the Convertibilityin December 2001.
Cheap dollar?: What factors can press at the exchange rate since July
Thus, the question becomes where the flows will be found from July, when several unfavorable situations are combined to exchange stability.
In that sense, Lambda points out The decline of agriculture offer for the expiration of the transitory decrease of retentions for soy and corn products. But also, the consultant LCG Mark that “the cheap dollar” is hurrying contacts with suppliers from abroad to bring products, which can Vigorously accelerate the rate of imports In the coming months.
Therefore, LCG warns: “If from July they begin to see negative balances, it is possible that the change market takes note and Look for higher values in the exchange rate”
Although May and June are the best months in seasonal terms, it is expected for the market that the balance of goods remains more or less at bay next month.
According to LCG, it could even continue to be positive if it ends up confirming the good export dynamics: the daily liquidations in the Mulc are showing a higher level than last month (in the first 11 days, AGRO liquidated US $ 2,200 million, vs US $ 1,500 million in Mayalthough the tax benefit will be eliminated this month). In addition, the implementation of the Néstor Kirchner gas pipeline It favors fuel purchases at reduction.
More than time, the consultant estimates that the end of seasonality can generate a worsening of the balance of goods, which is in months with a negative balance. The average monthly surplus so far has been small -u $ s300 million- and It is easily reversible.
Martín PoloChief of Strategy Cohen Financial Allies adds that the commercial balance will tend to fall over time due to a decrease in exports, but Also for greater demand for imports and the approximation of the electoral contextwhich generates increased demand and a market “that can be drying.”
It also expects the exchange rate to move but “Just a little, nothing serious”, Attentive to the“ exchange pax ”being held at least to the elections.
Source: Ambito
