In July they should rise again the aliquots for soybeans and their derivatives. In the sector they ensure that the liquidation will be stopped. The government needs dollars but the fiscal margin is limited.
President Javier Milei assured several opportunities that the withholding to soybeans will rise to 33% as of July 1, as planned. The export sector anticipates that it will be reflected on the board. In the field they ensure that if the measure is implemented, the currency settlement that broke records in the first half of the year will stop: “They will be dry until November”Andrés Costamagna, manager of the Rural Society warned. Meanwhile, the currency demand continues to grow due to the import rise and trips abroad.
The entry of Agrarodlares accelerated strong in the first five months of the year29.5% grew in relation to the same period of 2024, reached US $ 111.713 million and became the third best brand in the entire series, according to data from the Oil Industry Chamber of the Argentine Republic (Ciara) and the Cereal Export Center (CEC).
The harvest was better than expected, but the phenomenon was centrally explained by the temporary decline of retentions announced by the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, last January. With the ironed dollar, the Central Bank intervening in the positions of the future dollar, the differential aliquot and juicy rates to take advantage, The agroindustrial sector rose to “Carry Trade” and advanced sales.
The doubts are now focused on what will go from next month, when the withholdings should rise again. President Javier Milei assured several times that there will be no going back in July and the aliquot will return to 33% for soybeans and 31% for derivatives. In the last hours, rumors of all kinds circulated in the market.
In the export sector they anticipated the scope that as soon as the rise is made, it will be transferred to the board, that is to say that the price that is paid to the producer will be lowered by the grain. In the field they will stop that the liquidation will be stopped: “They are going to stay dry until November,” said the director of the Andrés Costamagna Rural Society in an interview with Channel now Play.
The producers already made “mattress”
For Costamagna, The producers already made a margin in the first half of the year: “Today there are more sales than normal, the field enters the ‘Carry Trade’ for the fixed term, already made the mattress to endure until November,” he said. On this point, he remarked that “the Rofex is operating with a differential of US $ 30 dollars and for not renewing the decree, about 30 dollars are going to be removed. All go to November and the US $ 2,000 million that Solés have in July, August, September, you will not have them.”
On the sidewalk in front, The Casa Rosada needs more than ever than currency settlement is maintained to get there with the exchange rate to the elections and improve the electoral chances of Javier Milei space. Meanwhile the demand for dollars grows, according to INDEC data, the current account of the balance of payments registered an external deficit of US $ 5,191 million.
The agricultural manager and consultant considered “inadequate” the government’s intention to raise the aliquot: “You even arrived with the temporal leave without deteriorating the fiscal deficit, so it could be maintained,” he said. But the truth is that the collection does not rebound and brought headaches to the Palace of Finance again.
The fiscal cost of the decline of withholdings already exceeds US $ 700 million and if there is anything that Javier Milei leaves no doubt is his commitment to the fiscal anchor. The decision that the Government must take is short sheet and is given on days agitated by the international context and adverse news on the financial level.
Source: Ambito
