Global investment decisions are bombarded by the resurgence of war conflicts. At the local level, in any economic-financial meeting or encounter the question arises: how is the “Armadito” scheme support for the Milei-Caputo tandem after October?
Investment decision making is bombarded by the resurgence of war conflicts globally And in that framework, caution predominates, although the worst stages projected for Israel-I will disrupt the position of much of the market. While the look is set, as usual in each episode of the Middle East, in The price of oil, also the Fed pause is being reasseval. Today it seems that, as since last January, everything is in the hands of Donald Trump, in terms of milically accompanying Israel against Iran, a scenario that has already aroused warnings from Moscow, among other actors directly and indirectly involved. While At the local level, investors take the pencil to the pencil from the “carry trade” calculation And they see how political chess rearranges after the house prison of Cristina Kirchner.
In this regard, in one of the most enriching virtual encounters of the City, to which the ruling party disqualifies identifying it as part of the mandriles, they threw the last public opinion numbers, prior to the Court’s decision on CFK, and showed that, as in any electoral year, the level of activity and inflation dominate the mood and spirits. This is how In the ranking of concerns inflation collapsed to the seventh place well behind corruption, poverty, security, unemployment and rates. Today only 15% are concerned about inflation when months ago it was 70%, in line with the deceleration of the CPI. Regarding inflationary expectations, the deceleration is confirmed from the output of the stocks. The image of the government improved something and Milei is stable, the ones that benefit the most are mainly Patricia Bullrich and something Luis Caputo while vice president Villarruel continues to fall. Another in Franco Declive is Mauricio Macri with 60% negative image, surpassing CFK with 57%. Among the governors, the worst performance is that of Kicillof and Jorge Macri while both Pullaro and Llaryora are still not lifted.
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Recurrent question: How is the scheme sustained after October?
That said, in any economic-financial meeting or meeting, both mandriles and official or opponent, after reviewing the achievements of the Government, especially prosecutors and inflationary, they all wonder How is the “Armadito” scheme supported by the Milei-Caputo tandem after October? Some speak bluntly, others with cosmetics, but all contemplate some adjustment in the exchange rate. Of course, inside the band. That is why there is expectation for knowing the official number of May of the dollar futures market, after it was confirmed that the Central Bank (BCRA) intervened in March and April, but with little ammunition. A counterpoint between two operators lowered the decibels to the MSCI theme, because at most, as usual, the next week send Argentina to consultation to change the status “stand-alone”, nothing more (the last one was Bulgaria last year).
And speaking of investments, a prestigious economist, respected by President Milei, synthesized the two main questions asked by foreign investors: Why this time is different and how is that you can’t take the money they invest. On the first question, the smooth and flat explanation is because there is fiscal surplus, which differentiates us not only from the region but from the rest of the majority of the world. The other has to do with the stocks and low stock of reserves.
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Carry, dollar and rates
Another recognized colleague, also enrolled on the non -mandrile side by Milei, risked that The economic team could go to the international capital market before what investors expect, perhaps with another small placementbut not waiting for the country risk (today at 700 basic points) to lower to less than 400 points, but some activity could be seen in the 500 points. In that meeting with market customers, the economist, with serious links with Washington, stressed that the commitment to the “Carry” could be altered since if the dollar goes to the lower band it becomes increasingly risky.
Meanwhile, among the operations tables, the effects of the latest economic measures that economy took by adjusting the scheme plugs in search of pesos and dollars are still analyzed. Considering that the elimination of the Lefi, the schedule of placing debt in pesos against Treasury dollars to residents and non -residents and the elimination of the “puts”, the balance is that the government benefits in two ways: on the one hand, on the one hand, on the one hand, From now on monetary regulation will be done through the secondary market of public titles; And on the other, part of the weights behind the disarmament of the Lefis will return to the BCRA through the treasure account. In this regard, the consensus is that the new scheme plus the misinflation of May than 1.5% monthly should validate a decrease in the rates for both the treasure and those of bank collection. While, on the side of dollars, the important thing is the decision to collect currencies for the payment of July through indebtedness.
Source: Ambito
