The type of Real multilateral exchange rate of Argentina in June It was located in the same level of April 2017during the management of Mauricio Macri, when the Minister of Finance was the current head of Economics, Luis Caputo. The information corresponds to the data of the Central Bank and the TCRM As of June 18, it was 83.3.
The data on the decline of the real exchange rate puts financial markets alertwhich foresee an increase in demand for dollars to the extent that October elections are approaching.
“We hope so much the drivers of the current account (foreign trade and tourism) like those of the financial account (formation of external assets of human persons) press upwards the exchange rate on the eve of the mid -term elections ”, The PPI Stock Exchange Society points out in its latest report.
The approach is that “the real exchange rate is located at relatively low levels and practically equal to the minimum of management Macri reached in April 2017 ”.
“Excluding the period from October 2024 to May 2025it is in the lower values from the devaluations of December 2015 (departure of the stockp with Macri) and December 2023 (beginning of the mandate of Milei), ”says the report, which indicates that“ taking even greater perspective, the exchange rate is found in the lowest level since the end of convertibility in December 2001 “.
“He question becomes where the flows will be found from July, When the Agro Decline’s offer for the expiration of the transitory decline of retentions for soy and corn products, ”adds the report.
Dollar: Model with loose legs
Martín Kalos, from Epyca, he said in this regard that “The sustainability of the Milei model has two loose legs, the exchange and productive.” “In the exchange it has two great symptoms. One is the exchange rate appreciation and the other is the lack of accumulation of reserves,” he explained.
Kalos said that “The exchange rate is very appreciated for more than Milei discusses“Since” that is seen in the number of tourists who leave and the few who come. “” Argentina is expensive, salaries are expensive in dollars. There are service companies that already have problems because salaries are high, ”he explained.
He also indicated that “For more efforts that are doing SMEs, exchange competitiveness is drowning them That symptom must be added that the Central Bank does not buy reservations. ”
The analyst warned that “the perspective for the second semester is that there are much less agricultural exports liquidations, since they were done now because the incentive due to retentions encourages imports.”
The market can search for the technical value of the dollar at $ 1,400
For its side, from the Fund Administrator Wiseit was stated that “the Government remains firm in its position of just buying dollars on the band of the band”
In that sense, it was warned that “If people do not get the dollars from the matt for the effect on the reserves of the maturities of July (more than US $ 4,000 million) and will begin to look at the Technical dollar, which today is at $ 1,396 ”.
“We are traveling months that are fire test “ “It was indicated- and that” the government program that seeks to re-obey with dollars under the mattress, has not yet brought with it the objective of increasing the devices in hard currency. “
Source: Ambito
