With the value of dollar In the sight, market operators begin to see With greater concern the sustainability of the low exchange rate model that the government wants to carry out at least until the October elections.
The result of Current account of the first quarter, which threw a deficit of US $ 5,200 million, lit orange lights. Operators argue that, if the Government and companies do not achieve an even more aggressive level of indebtedness, the situation goes to “adjust by exchange rate ”.
This was stated by the analyst of Cohen Financial Allies, Martín Polo, In a talk with investors. “We have to make the government and the private sector go to be financed with greater aggressiveness or repatriate capitals. If not, this adjusts for the exchange rate. The accounts do not close us”Pole explained.
The problem is that, at this point, the scheme of the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, To lower inflation in a sustained way to less than 1% monthly it already generates Great disparities with the numbers that were agreed with the IMF.
Polo recalled that the balance of payments of the first quarter It was already US $ 5,200 million, while “the fund was waiting for the entire year US $ 2,700 million.”
The financial account, the contributor of dollars
“There is a skid of the balance of services. If we have in increasing deficit and we have no reservations, you will have to achieve external financing. A financial account that gives you dollars, ”he explained.
The analyst added in that regard that “the Silver of the IMF and Repo entered the second quarter, while The gross reserves rose US $ 16,000 million for entry of private capitals and organizations. ” In this regard, Polo said that “for Next two quarters we continue to see current account deficit. ”
In this regard, he added that The goal with the IMF of accumulation of reserves “will not comply”, Situation that is in your opinion is an “estimate error.” “It is difficult to accumulate reservations with this program. Somewhere, Argentina will have to adjust, ”he explained.
Polo said, on the other hand, that the country risk remains in 700 basic points and does not fall to 400 because the scheme itself Economic sows doubtswhich forces the economic authorities to constantly convince the markets that they can pay. “Every time the maturities approach, the market will be with doubts”Pole explained.
The analyst added in this regard that if the country risk was not at 400 points “it can be due to political risk, although there is a will to pay.” The problem is that “there are difficulties in finding dollars.”
A break for weight
The economic team still has A point in favor that compensates for the effects of the exchange rate delay. Polo stressed that the peso still has a certain margin of competitiveness due to the currencies of the countries with which Argentina was reinforced in front of a dollar that lost land globally.
“All coins were seen against the dollar: 9.5% Gain this year, but below 8% compared to last year, ”he explained.
The economist considered that this change is low in historical perspective. “It is 25% below the average. It is something to take into account to position yourself in terms of portfolio,” said Polo, explained Who considered that in relation to the exchange rate is like “if there were many clouds and we are going out without umbrella.”
Source: Ambito
