In this scenario, different banks, consultants and economists updated their projections on what will happen with the value of the dollar In the rest of the year, with the focus – mainly – in the legislative elections that will take place in October.
On the other hand, the report also places the blue dollar Around $ 1,379 for the end of 2025. For the following year, they project values of $ 1,568 for the officer and $ 1,592 for the informal. The price of the official dollar scheduled is approaching the ceiling of the exchange band, which in December will reach $ 1,528, with a $ 915 floor.
GDP projections and inflation
As for inflation, Latinfocus adjusted his forecast for 2025, estimating an increase of 28.6%, that is, 1.5 points more than in its previous calculation. However, by 2026 it projects a Important lowwith one Inflation of 17.9%.
The growth of Gross Domestic Product It was also reviewed up: the report indicates that the Economy will grow 5% in 2024 (0.1 points above estimated last month) and 3.4% in 2026.
What do banks and consultants expect for the dollar
One of the key axes of the government’s economic policy is entirely related to the evolution of the exchange rate. While previous estimates marked a moderate increase, The new report shows a projection of up to $ 1,388.
Sebastián Menescaldi, Director of Eco Go, said: “We change the scenario. We see that the government will have to recalibrate after elections. This implies seeking to challenge the external sector, with a slightly more depreciated exchange rate, all depending on the global context. If oil and soy continue to rise, perhaps this is not necessary. ”
He also added that “There is a certain anchorage of important expectations and the Pass-Through is lower “. As he explained, “the rearrangement of the exchange rate would be done at the beginning of 2026. The $ 1.338 contemplates a reduced rise in monthly inflation in the remainder of the year.”
From Econviews, Alejandro Giacoia He stated that the dollar I could start moving more after the seasonal peak of the harvest and with the advance of the Electoral campaignalthough keeping inside the flotation band. On inflation, he warned: “The trend is decreasing, although the road is not linear month by month.”
Camilo Tiscornia, director of C&T Economic AdvisorsHe argued that April and May inflation data were better expected, partly by the agreement with the IMF and the flexibility of the exchange rate. “The vast majority thought that monthly inflation was going to be above 2% and ended up being 1.5%,” he said.
Economists give their prognosis for the dollar
In the midst of the implementation of the floating exchange regime with bands and the agreement with the IMF, Menescaldi was critical of the official scheme. “This plan is not sustainable”he sentenced. Speaking to now Play, he warned that The government needs to generate genuine dollars. “You have to increase the demand for pesos, that exporters liquidate and leave the weights in the system, or get direct foreign investment “he said.
On the other hand, the economist also criticized The viability of current instruments: “In the short term it can work, But if inflation falls strong, paying 29% interest how Bonte 2030 offers is too expensive” U $ 15,000 OU $ 20,000 million? Agro is cyclical. If reservations do not accumulate, all that goes at prices. ”
For its part, Christian Buteler, considered an abrupt correction of the exchange rate improbable before the elections. “The Government will prioritize stability and disinflation,” he said. “As the supply ends and the demand is increased, it will go more to the ceiling,” he said, although he clarified: “Hopefully it does not accommodate so much and is below $ 1,300.”
In your analysis, Fausto Spotorno warned that “you can’t be appreciating the exchange rate infinitely“And he stressed that the government faces limitations.” Today you are thinking about inflation, but the big problem It is what alternative the government has now ”he said.
Dollar Spotor
On wholesale prices, he explained that the negative data of May was obeying the exchange rate and commodities. “LTo combination of the two effects it gave this negative 0.3. And while he acknowledged that this can anticipate lower retail inflation, he stressed that “There are a lot of processes that are added,” such as wages or rentals.
Finally, Salvador Di Stefano projected that the dollar will remain stable at the current levels, away from the floor of the exchange band. In the social network X, he pointed out that this stability opens investment opportunities for small and medium savers. He also warned that, since July, the decline in withholdings and the lower income of currencies by agriculture They could reduce the offer and stop a drop in the official exchange rate.
Source: Ambito
