This scenario, aggravated debt maturities in Julyis influenced by the entry of currencies from negotiable obligations (ON) and provincial bonds, a mechanism that recalls the 2016-2018 period and that in 2024 reached a record of US $ 13,222 million, led by energy companies and followed, in 2025, for some additional US $ 5,000 million, to which it has just added In the last hours the issuance of the province of Córdoba. These placements represent a Key source of dollars for governmentbut also a point of tension in negotiations with the IMF, which evaluates the sustainability of this strategy in an electoral year.
The government defense: a dollar that “floats” with specific interventions
The Deputy Minister of Economy, José Luis Dazahas been one of the main spokesmen of the government exchange strategy. During Argentina Economic Forum, organized by the Institute of International Finance (IIF), Daza He insisted that the exchange rate “floats” and is not anchoredbut determined by the supply and demand for currencies. According to the official, the liberalization of the exchange rate for natural persons, implemented in April 2025, has allowed a freer market, without direct interventions of the BCRA in the spot market. “The dollar moves according to market forces,” he said, discarding the accusations of an exchange backwardness.
However, Daza admitted that In May a specific intervention was carried out In the futures market To correct a distortion in a contract that impacted prices, operation coordinated with the IMF within the current program. This action allowed the BCRA to receive a disbursement of US $ 12,000 million, intended to recapitate its reserves. In the same sense, President Javier Milei has reiterated that A devaluation jump is not necessaryarguing that the zero emission policy and the fiscal anchor guarantee exchange stability.
The vice president of the BCRA, Vladimir Werningreinforced this position in an event of the Argentine Institute of Finance Executives (IAEF), stating that “There are no lack of reservations, there are plenty of”and highlighting that the exchange market has been released without generating a “exchange apocalypse.” Werning stressed that the agreement with the IMF allowed the Government to advance in the third phase of the economic plan, avoiding interventions that generate upward pressures on the exchange rate. The flow of currencies from the ON placements, which reached a record of US $ 13,222 million in 2024, driven by money laundering and the loss of country risk, has been a pillar to support this strategy.
The IMF and the pressure on the reserves
The IMF missionwhich evaluates compliance with the goals of the agreement, has focused your attention on reserves International and the sustainability of the exchange schemequestioning the dependency of income from debt placements. The organism anticipates a Greater pressure on the BCRA coffers from July, due to debt maturities for US $ 4,200 million. This scenario is aggravated by The end of the thick harvestwhich traditionally provides a significant currency flow between April and June, but will now leave the central with less organic income to face external obligations.
Analysts estimate that the BCRA has intervened in the futures, Dollar MEP and CCL markets with more than US $ 200 million since April, suggesting an effort to contain the exchange gap in a context of growing demand for coverage. Economist Milagros Gismandi said that the proximity of October legislative elections could intensify this pressure, with the future dollar for December to quote $ 1,355, which implies an implicit rate of 36%.
These interventions, although denied in the spot market, They have generated IMF criticismwhich seeks greater flexibility of the exchange rate to avoid distortions and questions whether the rise of debt placements, led by the energy sector (which captured US $ 7.5 billion in 2024, especially in Vaca Muerta), is sustainable in the long term.
A former IMF director warned that Argentina will not meet the accumulation goals of reservations in the July reviewwhich could complicate negotiations. A source linked to negotiations between the agency and the government told Scope that is on the table the Possibility that the IMF visit is not considered a formal evaluation, which would give the chance to the Casa Rosada to request that this exam be carried out later.
According to estimates, BCRA net reserves are found in negative terrain (-U $ S8.5 billion), far from the target of US $ 2,600 million for June. Complying with this objective would require accumulating around US $ 4,400 million, a challenge that could demand new indebtedness at high rates, given that the country risk is maintained at 678 basic points. Debt market reactivation, with 481 emissions in 2024 (7% more than the peak of 2017), has provided temporary relief, but the IMF insists on the need for genuine accumulation of reserves beyond these sources.
Córdoba’s debt placement: an indication of the exchange direction
The province of Córdoba marked a milestone yesterday when returning to international markets, emulating the 2016-2018 period when the Argentine provinces actively accessed external financing. Córdoba placed US $ 725 million in expiration in 2032, at a rate of 9.75%, Under New York Lawand included an offer of repurchase of expiration in 2027 for US $ 516 million, at a price of $ S99.5 for each US $ 100 of nominal value.
This operation, the first of an Argentine jurisdiction since 2017, reflects the reopening of the provincial debt market, which in 2016-2018 captured about US $ 10,000 million together. The conditions that the Government imposes on Córdoba for the management of the dollars obtained could reveal signals about exchange policy. According to analysts, the administration of the liquid portion of these funds, after the repayment or repurchase of the 2027 Bonus, will be decisive, with potentially positive (or negative) impacts according to the decisions taken. For the provincial government, anticipate possible exchange rate correction In the coming months it is crucial, since a requirement to convert these dollars to pesos to the official exchange rate in the short term could generate significant losses in case of devaluation, which highlights the relevance of this operation in the national exchange context.
Challenges in an electoral context and post-harvest
The end of the thick harvest marks a turning point for the Argentine economysince the third quarter historically records a lower accumulation of reserves. Debt explications for US $ 18.9 billion in 2025, combined with a current account deficit of US $ 5,200 million in the first quarter, represent significant risks.
Without a new IMF disbursement, estimated at US $ 2,000 million, The exchange rate appreciation strategy could become unsustainable, especially if the demand for dollars accelerates due to electoral uncertainty. The placement of corporate debt, which in 2024 reached a record of US $ 13,222 million with 481 emissions, led by companies such as YPF (US $ 800 million to 8.75%) and Pampa Energía (US $ 600 million to 5.75%), has been a pillar for the income of foreign exchange. In 2025, new placements, such as Córdoba (US $ 725 million), reinforce this trend, but corporate debt maturities, estimated at US $ 4,100 million for the year, propose an additional challenge.
The government, however, maintains an optimistic speech. Daza stressed that the current account deficit is “reasonable” and is explained by the increase in investment, comparing it with international cases. In addition, it is confident that inflation will converge at low levels, supported by fiscal and monetary discipline. However, economists such as Diego Giacomini warn that the current exchange scheme is “dynamically inconsistent”, and the recent jump of the blue dollar reflects latent tensions in the market. The dependence of debt placements, both corporate and provincial, adds a layer of complexity, since its sustainability will depend on the government’s ability to maintain investor confidence and avoid abrupt correction of the exchange rate.
Source: Ambito
