In the first quarter of 2025 Argentina registered a Current account deficit of US $ 5,191 million, a figure that has already exceeded US $ 2,700 million that had been scheduled for all this year in the recent agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The estimates of the government itself indicate that the “red” of currencies accumulated towards December will quintupled that number established in the papers.
In the market and in the economic team offices They estimate that the deficit will represent about 2% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a percentage five times higher than 0.4% contemplated in the agreement with the IMF by 2025.
This was recognized by Vice Minister of Economy, José Luis Dazawithin the framework of the Argentine Economic Forum organized by the International Institute of Finance (IIF) and justified: “A 2% deficit in a country that grows at 6% It is absolutely expected. “
A negative 2% balance of GDP would represent between US $ 14,000 YU $ S15,000 million. However, according to Daza, part of this deterioration in the balance is explained by a greater investment by the private sector, something that is not too verified in the flows of dollars that enter and leave the country, beyond the improvement with respect to the beginning of 2024, the worst moment of the recession.
Dollar: Where are the currency of the current account going?
According to the balance of payments reported by INDEC this week, The “trip” sector had a deficit of US $ 3,464 million between January and March, thus explaining most of the current account unbalance. This is a reflection of the delay in the price of the dollar, which came to touch minimums from convertibility and encouraged tourism abroad.
The podium of more deficit sectors, when grouping both goods and services, was completed by the Automotive complexproduct of the escalation in imports, and transport serviceswith a “red “of US $ 1,415 million YU $ S867 million, respectively.
As for the goods, the unfavorable balances also had an impact on the steel complex and the pharmacistas well as in textile, although the latter to a lesser extent. Also, among the services also highlighted the deficit in charges for the use of intellectual property.
According to INDEC, the hole in the current account was financed in the first quarter fundamentally by a loss of reserves of US $ 6,550 million. It is worth remembering that the report did not contemplate the dollars from international organizations In April, that from the agreement with the IMF they became the main source of foreign exchange for the Government.
Se Treat numbers that arouse doubts in the City. To what extent can the indebtedness compensate for the hole generated in the other windows that make the currency flow? And, in the face of a second semester in which the contribution of the thick harvest will no longer be, what will happen to the exchange rate?
Source: Ambito
