According to market estimates, In June the rates in pesos managed to beat inflation, while the official dollar remained almost without variations between tips. Looking ahead to Julio, control over the exchange rate is expected to intervention in futures and supported by debt with international organizations, keep the price increases at bay, although the growing current account deficit arouses doubts about the sustainability of this dynamic.
The consultants are predicting for next month a slightly higher inflation than Mayo. Increases in regulated prices, in a pressure context on the international value of oil following the conflict in the Middle East, and in some foods, were some of the factors that most promoted the consumer price index (CPI) according to private ones.
As an example ANALYTICS He estimates that the CPI will rise from 1.7%against 1.5% that INDEC reported for May. For its part, LCG calculated a 2.1% food inflation for the average of the last four weeks (with the increase in meats such as the main upward incidence), from which it can be approximated that the general index could be located something below 2%.
Also, to echo the projection gives you a 2%while that of balancing is of a 2.1%. “The regulated leads leading a floor to the inflation of the month: they climbed 0.6% weekly, after the increase in the price of gasoline (except YPF, the companies in the sector rose 5%),” the latter said.
Top, the consultants, study centers and financial institutions that participated in the last survey of market expectations (REM) of the Central Bank (BCRA) They entered a 1.8% price increase for July.
The exchange anchor continues to play a key role in the deceleration of inflation
The appreciation of weight is a determining element of the inflationary dynamics of recent months. After a correction of 8.5% in April, after the change of exchange scheme, the value of the official wholesale dollar rose only 1.5% in May, while E andn June barely advanced 0.1%or $ 1, up to $ 1,189.
For July, contracts agreed in the future A3 market “Pricean” a 3% increasetherefore, in case of completing, it would exceed the estimated inflation for the same period. For the second semester an average monthly rise of 2.4%, greater than 1.8% estimated at the last REM is expectedAlthough it should be remembered that the survey of the BCRA can already be old, since at the beginning of next month a new report will be.
It should be added, anyway, that it was recently known that the Current account deficit exceeded US $ 5,000 million in the first quarter of 2025, a figure that already exceeded US $ 2,700 million provided for in the Agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Although international organizations are providing financing to cover that “red”, the negative balance does not stop generating doubts about the solvency of the “green ticket”.
In the last week the Treasury rates rose
On the other hand, the bidding of debt in pesos of this last week threw a Increase in the rates of the shortest letters, from 35% per year to 40.5%. In monthly terms, this implies a 3.4% yieldsuperior to both inflation and the expected devaluation.
For instruments that beat the end of the year and early 2026, the returns were between 35% and 36% per year, which represents a monthly monthly rate of 3%. The director of the BCRA, Federico Furiase He highlighted the reappearance of the “Anker Point”, a mechanism by which the low refinancing of the debt (58%was barely renewed) is a consequence of the demand for weights of the private sector. “Therefore, the Treasury constituted reserves in pesos with the accumulated primary surplus and the net treasury placements in the local market,” he explained.
From Personal Investment Portfolio (PPI) They stressed that high rates in the primary instrument market in pesos generate adjustment in the secondary market and warned that If the liquidity demand that was seen in this last week is maintained, it would imply “real short -term rates comfortably above 10%”given the downward inflation.
In this context, from the Facimex Stock Exchange Society they suggested that, since the inflation “Breakeven” between the fixed rate titles and the titles adjusted by inflation (CER) again cut, “It makes sense again a more balanced exposure between Cer and Nominal”, in favor of the latter.
For those investors looking for coverage in dollars, they said that “with the short section of the futures curve with Tea’s comfortably exceeding 40%, we tactically prioritize the December bonte (TZVD5) combining it with exposure to negotiable obligations (debt of companies) of high quality issuers.”
As for fixed deadlines, rates in the country’s main banks give an annual average of 29.7%, equivalent to 2.5% monthly. In this case the figure converges more to expectations about the dollar and inflation.
Source: Ambito
