De Pablo remarked that the current scheme is floating exchange rate and pointed out that “there is too much discussion about something that should not be.” In addition, he stressed that the measures to promote the use of treasured dollars will hardly have an immediate effect on the formal economy: “Expenditure decisions are designed, it is not that as soon as these measures came out they were all to change the car. People take their time to get the dollars from the mattress to take them to the bank, it is logical, “he concluded.
For its part, the economist Luis Secco He analyzed the challenges of the economic plan and expressed concern about the government’s ability to accumulate currencies and fulfill their commitments. “The accumulation of currencies worries me since it is the key factor in the Argentine capacity to pay its debt. The market has sensations found by the lack of capacity of the government or the Central Bank to accumulate reserves, ”he warned.
Carlos Melconian was blunt when referring to the current exchange scheme. Prior to becoming the INDEC data, the economist warned that Mile’s government systemI “has a death date” and anticipated an abrupt adjustment by the market, beyond the figure of the presidentE: “Reality will give a flying”since people will dollarize their portfolios even if the president is “Gardel.”
In his opinion, the current price of the dollar is in countdown: “The dollar in the current values is to ‘death days’, And this will occur when they begin to pay the Imports that the Government ‘He does not let'”
He recalled that in the second half of last year the money laundering was used as a financing bridge: “July, August and September were a problem until the laundering bridge began.” Then he explained: “Lighting came with this novelty, the argening, those who take the credit that are subject to credit, go to the mulc -go to the unique and free of changes -are lending, The Central Bank buys it, and with that it banked until February. “
But that logic, he said, does not work anymore: “This dynamic is not going, since March and April imposed the reality of the IMF. It is not that I am talking about Augustreality pushed them. If the money laundering continued to the elections, it continued. “
Finally, he highlighted the pressures facing the scheme: “The second element is whether you put the government’s demand, because at some point You have to buy dollars to pay, skinny “, And he concluded: “That’s where I say that it is not just the country’s risk policy.”
Agustín Monteverde He referred to the current account deficit and – in line with what was expressed by the Government – ruled out the possibility of a short -term devaluation and said that external red is manageable. “The two points marked by the minister are true,” affirmed. “When an economy grows, it is natural that there is more investment, more consumption, more imports and also more tourism. The commercial balance data reflects that behavior. ”
Agustín Monteverde.
Monteverde stressed that “this deficit is not financing a fiscal hole, as was the case in the past. It is a private sector deficit. They are decisions of individuals who spend their dollars, not the State. ”
Unlike “other stages” of recent economic history, he remarked that “Today the change market is free and transparent” He added: “Since the stock was built, there was not a single day of intervention of the Central Bank.” He also clarified that future dollar contracts “They are not interventions in the real exchange market, since they are settled in pesos, not in currencies.”
Finally, he stated that if there were a shortage of dollars, the market would be self -regulated: “If dollars were missing, the exchange rate will begin to rise naturallyand that will stop the outputs and stimulate income. It regulates alone. ”
Finally, Martín Polo, J.EFE of strategy Cohen financial allies, He offered his diagnosis and, although he considered that the current account deficit is not worrying in himself, he alerted about the need to achieve financing: “The fact that there is current account deficit is not a problem. The issue is that it forces you to finance it. If you keep up, You will have to get the financing to compensate for that greater demand for dollars “he said.
Polo explained that “the public sector, with all its rivets, will gradually go on the capital market to finance that dollar deficit,” but warned about the limitations: “There joins the barrier that can put the market in terms of rates. The country risk is a little high to finance that deficit. ”
As he said, “that is what the market is discussed, how they will finance that deficit in the current account.” And he concluded: “If the market finances it, it can be followed. The issue is that in these processes, It depends more on the fluctuations of the market to finance it, because when it stops financing, or adjusts for price or adjusts by quantity. ”
The Government fell importance to INDEC data
The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, relativized on Friday the external deficit of US $ 5,000 million registered in the current account during the first quarter of the year. From Congress we are SME, held in La Rural, justified that red in the framework of a context of economic growth: “It is absolutely reasonable and even healthy for an economy that is growing at 6%”he said.
Dollar Caputo
Caputo explained that the imbalance in external accounts responds to the rebound of investment and the process of recomposition of capital in an economy that, in his words, is “totally recapitized.” Part of that deficit, he said, is associated with Advance imports by companies after the partial lifting of the stocks.
“We said that we were going out of exchange restrictions when it wasn’t a stress situation for people. And we left. There was no stress. The dollar fell”said the minister.
In his speech, he insisted that the economic direction of the government marks a turning point: “This time is different”held. And expanded: “This time it will work. In Argentina there was never a macroeconomic order by political decision. Ours is a sophisticated program at the monetary, financial and fiscal level. ”
The Deputy Minister of Economy, José Luis Daza, also referred to the issue during a financial summit that brought together the main banks of the world. In that context, he defended the exchange regime and pointed out that the dollar “It is not ironed or controlled”but “It’s floating” freely, without intervention from the Central Bank. “It will be determined by supply and demand for dollars,” he said.
Regarding red in the balance of payments, Daza minimized its impact when considering that Argentina is going through “A gigantic change in the balance of payments”with potential to generate energy and mining surpluses by between U $50,000 YU $ S60,000 milliona figure that, he defined, is “equivalent to two Argentine agros.”
Even so, he clarified that the government “It will monitor” Upon the evolution of that indicator, after it was known that the current account deficit reached US $ 5,191 million, almost twice as projected by the IMF for all 2025. “In the crises of other countries years ago, there was a great current account deficit. But they import quality, reason and magnitude. A 2% deficit of GDP in a country that grows at 6% is expected and reasonable ”, evaluated.
“We feel comfortable with this level”he remarked, and attributed the imbalance largely to the growth of investment. To reinforce his point, he compared it with international experiences: “In 2008, Spain had a 14% deficit of GDP”.
He also addressed the sustainability of the exchange rate. Although he avoided making taxative predictions, he said: “It is a very complex issue. I do not know what will happen. If I were an entrepreneur, what I would not do is bet that a depreciation will save me. It is very possible that the exchange rate is strong in what is coming”.
Source: Ambito
