The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, with the direct involvement by the United States, generates a disruptive impact on the economies of the world. In Argentina, specialists warn Dual impact due to the favorable effect on oil prices, counteracted by a risk aversion that harms local bonds and actionsand threatens to postpone the country’s return to international credit markets.
Before the attack of the main power of the world to Iran, The market fears for Tehran’s response in the Ormuz Strait, where 20% of the world crude passes. The HSBC bank expects Brent oil prices to rise above US $ 80 By barrel considering a greater probability of closing of the Ormuz Strait, but that they lower again if the threat of interruptions does not materialize.
It is worth remembering that Brent does not exceed US $ 80 since mid -January. Taking only the price factor, the potential increase can favor Argentina, since in 2024 The crude was the third product that the country placed abroadonly behind soybeans and corn. Likewise, in aggregate terms the energy sector represented 13% of total exports in the first five months of 2025.
Petroleum seeks to overcome US $ 80: luck for Argentina?
“The main impact we all have in mind when we talk about the Middle East is the issue of oil; every time an important producer (in this case Iran) can make production worldwide prices tend up. Argentina runs with the advantage that Vaca Muerta is not what it was several years ago“The economist said Andrés Salinas In dialogue with ScopeAlthough he clarified that some refined fuels that the country matters will also be affected.
In that sense, an increase in the price of crude It can be translated into local fuel price increases. “You have to see how much is the impact and the transfer at prices within the cost chain of each company to truly determine the impact on the inflation index,” he warned.
“The impact will depend on the intensity and duration of the conflict. I think The main risk passes through the side of inflationsince fuels and foods are sensitive items that fully affect index. If finally the resolution of the conflict is relatively rapid the negative effects may not be so many and Muerta cow could take advantage of the high prices of crude oil, “the specialist predicted.
In this regard, Ignacio MoralesChief Investments Officer, from Wise Capital, He noted that Puma and Shell announced this weekend an increase of 5% in gasoline prices and diesel. YPF still did not modify the price of its fuel. “This factor is going to end up having an impact on the inflation fact of June/July,” he warned.
War harms risk financial assets
On the other hand, what is being observed in financial markets is the dynamics called “Fly to Quality” (Flight to quality), which consists of the trend of investors to protect themselves in assets considered as safe. “Argentina, being an emerging country, is highly vulnerable to these turbulence”Salinas explained.
This It does not favor the country’s return possibilities to global debt markets. It is worth remembering that this Tuesday, the American market of markets MSCI will make the final decision on the new categorization of the Argentine debt, although he already anticipated that the restrictions that hinder the entry of foreign investors to the local square, complicates the possibility of an ascent of category to “emerging”, from the current “Standalone”, although it could do it to the category of “border market”.
Source: Ambito
