In the middle of the visit of an IMF mission to the country, the president Javier Milei Face an economic challenge of magnitude: A floating debt close to US $ 60,000 millioncomposed mainly of commitments with importers and companies that seek to send dividends abroad.
This liabilities, accumulated in recent years, reflects the tensions derived from exchange restrictions and shortage of international reserveswhich have limited the capacity of the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) to meet these obligations in a timely manner. At the same time, and in a tonic that seems to postpone its resolution, these liabilities are part of a scheme of accumulated imbalances since last year, designed to prevent the market of changes from legitimizing an abrupt jump in the price of the dollar, by proclating the cancellation of these liabilities and, therefore, reducing the immediate need to buy currencies.
According to recent data and taking a thread of the last 18 months, the commercial debt with importers reached a peak of U $ S58.8 billion in March 2024before the emissions of the bonds for the reconstruction of a free Argentina (Bopreal). By December 2024, This stock was reduced Au $ S53,648 millionthanks to a decrease of US $ 315 million between January and April 2025, according to the report of the evolution of the BCRA change market. To this figure are added U $ 7,000 million in retained dividendswhich raises the total to a level close to US $ 60,000 million. These estimates, backed by Personal Personal Investment (PPI) and other sources reports, underline the magnitude of accumulated liabilities, which represent a significant pressure on the exchange market.
For the Government, the urgency passes the other way. This is so, because the origin of this debt is found in the restrictions imposed by the exchange rate, which for years has hinders access to the single and free market (Mulc) for Importers and companies with external obligationswhich usually references previous governments.
The officials contacted by the scope – who requested anonymity – argue that the accumulation of this debt has worked in the past as a tool to contain the demand for dollars in the official market, thus avoiding a pronounced devaluation that could have destabilized the economy, from which the current difficulty in solving it in the short term derives.
Bopreal emission, designed to relieve this pressure, has had mixed results. The 4 series, whose first tender was held on June 18, seeks to cancel commercial debts prior to December 12, 2023 and retained dividends, with an authorized issuance of US $ 3,000 million. However, the persistence of a high debt stock suggests that the solutions implemented have not been enough to solve the structural problem.
Economic implications and perspectives
The floating debt not only affects the companies involved, but also generates uncertainty in the market and presses the international BCRA reserves. By postponing the cancellation of these liabilities, the Government has managed to moderate the demand for currencies in the short term, but at the expense of aggravating external imbalances. The Government’s strategy, led by the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo, and the president of the BCRA, Santiago Bausili, has prioritized the accumulation of reserves to stabilize the external accounts by means of indebtedness, instead of acquiring those currencies in the Mulc.
However, the gradual release of the exchange rate, a key objective of the current management, Face obstacles due to the magnitude of this debt. According to analysts, the repressed currency demand could complicate the normalization of foreign trade and the remission of dividends, affecting the confidence of investors.
José María Segura, PWC chief economist, stressed that Bopreal emissions have been a key incentive for companies, since they cannot access the MULC if they resort to the financial market. However, the effectiveness of these emissions depends on the ability of the BCRA to manage the monetary base and avoid significant contractive impacts. PPI estimates that the total placement of series 4 could reduce the monetary base by $ 3.6 billion, an effect that must be carefully monitored.
Challenges and criticism
The management of this debt has generated criticism. Some analysts point out that the accumulation of commercial liabilities, exacerbated since 2024, reflects a deliberate strategy to sustain economic activity in a context of currency scarcity, but with long -term consequences. The Argentine Industrial Union (UIA) has warned about The impact on relations with external suppliersespecially for SMEs, while economists such as Santiago Bulat have stressed that commercial debt doubles the usual historical levels.
In the political sphere, the opposition has questioned the official accounting, arguing that the government resorts to creative practices to minimize the perception of debt. For example, some analysts have indicated that the liabilities accumulated by the Bopreal, which exceed US $ 10,000 million, are not always properly reflected in the treasure accounts. This controversy shows the complexity of addressing a structural problem in a context of tax and exchange restrictions.
Source: Ambito
