Latest Balance of the Central Bank (BCRA) He threw some numbers that turn on the alarms and showed one of the weak points of the economic direction. The Government celebrates the fiscal surplus, but it reduces importance to Strong exchange current account deficitparticularly red of the “Services” account. The numbers aroused concern in the market about the future of dollar.
If this trend continues, it could exceed the maximum of the historical series recorded in 2017, with US $ 10,819 million, or the second largest red services that was 2022, with US $ 10.106 million. BCRA data makes it clear that the deficit was explained by net expenses for Trips, tickets and other card payments for US $ 889 millionof the so -called other services for US $ 207 million and freight and insurance US $174 million.
External deficit and the opinion of Caputo
The accumulated balance of the first five months of 2025 shows a current account deficit of US $ 4,915 million (without contemplating the deficit of primary or secondary income). This fact was relativized by the Minister of Economy, Luis Caputo. “It is absolutely reasonable and even healthy for an economy that is growing at 6%”he justified during his participation in the meeting we are SMEs.
Beyond the Minister’s opinion, this red number is to pay attention. In particular, how it explains. Mainly, the accumulated deficit of services It is due to trips, tickets and other card payments for almost US $ 4,100 million, US $ 444 million in concept of Charges for the use of intellectual propertyother U $ 403 million Passenger transport servicesUS $ 582 million freight, US $ 222 Operational lease servicesUS $ 156 million of other transport services, US $171 million of insurance services, US $ 145 million of government services, YU $ S63 million financial services. In favor they played professional and technical business services with a surplus of US $ 1,346 million YU $ S40 million services related to trade.
Caputo’s explanation emphasized the growth of the economy. The external deficit is due, for the minister, up of investment and the recomposition of capital in a “totally recapitized” economy. Part of this negative balance of the first quarter is directly related to the advancement of the imports carried out by the companies after the relaxation of the exchange rate.
The opposition warning
One of those who caught the attention of the financial plan of Minister Caputo was the former president Cristina Kirchner. In a post published this weekend on social networks, he warned about the country’s departure for the formation of external assets of the non -financial private sector and the payment of interests of the external debt.
“In May The non -financial private sector was brought to $ S3.226 million abroad, record since 2003 and higher than the monthly average of 2018 and 2019 when the debt that your minister Toto Caputo had taken, in a macro version, “said Cristina Kirchner.
In another section, he highlighted: “The US $ 25,921 million accumulated in the commercial balance, between December 2023 and May 2025, went through the emissive tourism gutter (US $ 10,476 million) and the payment of interest interest (US $ 15,737 million).
Coverage demand: They anticipate greater pressure on the official dollar
Another factor to take into account is the increase in demand for coverage. This week The BCRA confirmed that It closed May with a position sold in futures of US $ 1,946 million. The data is compared to the position sold of US $ 409 million end of April and means that Last month the central sold US $ 1,537 million at termhighlights this Thursday the Consultant 1816.
“May is the largest -sold position of the Milei era, Although it remains far from the amounts sold by the monetary authority at other times of the recent past, “they explained in their latest report.
But to the May intervention for contain expectations It adds an extra pressure facing the events that will happen this semester. “Today it is observed A demand growth for coverage prior to elections. The most resonant case is the climbing of the future dollar for December, which today is quoted at $ 1,355 when only a month ago was $ 1,235. Contracts mark a short rate of 36% in that market, so there is a perception that this stability will not be permanent in 2025and shows clear coverage on an eventual rise from the dollar near band ceiling, “he told him to Scope The economist Federico Gluistein.
Source: Ambito
