In a new economic policy turn that generates global concern, the president of the United States, Donald Trumphe bet again on a hard tariff strategy. With New import taxes and the possibility of finishing extensions for their “reciprocal” levies, the scene of a new Commercial War It seems increasingly likely.
According to a Barclays report, the effects of these policies They will be felt in the world economy during the second semester of 2025affecting value chains, international prices and capital flows.
Contained inflation, but with latent threats
Despite the hardening of commercial policy, recent data shows that the Inflation in the USwith an underlying rate of 2.8% in May. However, Barclays analysts warn that tariffs could push that inflation above 3%which could complicate the monetary strategy of the Federal Reserve, which remains in pause waiting for greater economic clarity.
For economists, this price rise will not be immediate, but will have a progressive impactespecially if American consumers begin to absorb the cost of the most expensive imported goods.
What can happen in Argentina?
Although Argentina is not at the center of this commercial warindirect effects could feel in several ways:
-
Less global demand for primary products If world growth slows down, affecting key export prices such as soybeans, corn or meat.
-
Volatility in international financial marketswhich could generate a new exit of capital from emerging countries and press on the exchange rate and local rates.
-
Impact on the commercial strategy of the Argentine Governmentwhich seeks new markets and external stability while negotiating conditions of access to financing and definitive departure from the stocks.
In this context, the resilience of commerce with Brazil and China —principales commercial partners of Argentina – will be key to shock the external impact of US movements
Weakened global growth and focus on technology
Barclays projects that the world economy will grow Just 2.2% in 2025although he expects a recovery around 2026 with an expansion of 3.1%. This represents one significant deceleration Compared to previous years, marked by the brake of trade and investing caution.
However, analysts note that The focus of the markets will not be so much in the headlines on tariffs, but on macroeconomic data and the effect of artificial intelligence on business profits. Large technology, such as Nvidia, Microsoft or Apple, remain the axis of stock market growth.
Congress, Fed and the role of political capital
In parallel to the tariff issue, analysts also observed that Republicans still failed to approve a new fiscal and spending packagealthough they are expected to do so before the legislative recess of August. This delay also adds uncertainty to the US economic scenario.
For its part, the Federal Reserve Cauta is shown, without intentions to move the interest rate until it has a clearer panorama. A possible inflationary rebound derived from tariffs could leave Fed in an awkward position, without margin to relax its monetary policy.
How do markets react?
Despite the tension, The markets continue to bet on actionsespecially in sectors such as technology, health and finance. According to Barclays, liquidity remains abundant, the investment positioning is moderate and there is “dry gunpowder” to buy in the falls.
Within that framework, stock assets are expected to maintain their appeal compared to fixed income, at least in the short term.
The return of a commercial protection policy by the USA Not only does the global board complicate, but also Open questions about the future of multilateral trade and opportunities for developing countries such as Argentina.
In a world where the decisions of the great powers have every time greater systemic effectfragile economy countries should prepare to deal with external shocks, protect their local industry and keep diplomatic and commercial channels open.
Source: Ambito
