The Argentine economy bounced 1.9% monthly in April, so it recovered almost the entire fall it had suffered in March. In this way, the activity seeks to resume its growth path, marked by a relevant sector heterogeneity.
The data of the desestationalized series of the Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE) of Indec was slightly lower than February, although it was 4.6% above the level left by the previous government in November 2023. It was the second best figure since June 2022.
According to the measurement of the consultant Econviewsthe best performance sectors versus March were the construction (+3.4%), the industry (+1.6%) and financial intermediation (+1.5%), while trade had an increase of 0.4%. Between the falls, Pamela Moraleseconomist of the entity, he highlighted in dialogue with Scope The fact that hotels and restaurants have not managed to bounce, in a backward exchange rate context and strong tourism deficit.
In interannual terms, EMAE showed a 7.7% growth rate. While it was also the highest since June 2022, it is worth clarifying the very Low comparison basesince in April 2024 the recession touched its floor.
Compared to a year ago, The sectors that most influenced the increase were trade (+15.6%), industry (+7.6%) and financial intermediation (+28.4%).
Does economic activity take the growth path?
It should be remembered that in March the economy had been affected by the growing expectations of devaluation, in the previous according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The new agreement brought with it a change in the exchange scheme, with a more flexible dollar value.
Although the adjustment of the exchange rate was less than expected and favored greater calm in the markets, the Central Bank has been intervening via future every time the currency threatens to overcome in the center of the flotation bands.
Morales said the rebound in April was expected, something that the advanced indicators linked to industry, construction and commercial sales already advanced. So far this year, the analyst highlighted the impulse that has been giving trade, as well as the greatest participation of financial intermediation in GDP.
For its part, Eugenio Marí, chief economist of the Foundation Libertad y Progreso, said that “The April data shows that the trend of recovery of the economy continues” and that “the fall that had been observed in March was clearly a transitory fact, which responded to the uncertainty that had been generated in the previous agreement with the IMF.”
“The government unified the change market successfully, which allowed not only to clear those doubts, but also eliminated regulations that distorted the activity“He said.
The growth model determines clear winners and losers
The latest data reflect that The banks sector is one of the great winners of the growth model promoted by the government of Javier Milei. This is added the great performance of the sector of energy and miningmainly in 2024, and the contribution of the agrodespite its recent monthly diminish of April, all export activities and without so much weight in the generation of employment.
Among the items that contribute more to employment than the GDP highlights the improvement that has been throwing trade In recent months, by the hand of greater dynamism in credits, although it still remains below the levels of 2023. Likewise, Industry and construction remain the great losersboth in terms of activity and employment, comparing with the situation prior to November 2023.
Source: Ambito
