forecast
Institute: the economy in Russia and Ukraine clouds
The ruble rolls – or not. According to experts in the Russian economy, the high interest rates are increasingly being created. It doesn’t look better in Kyiv.
According to a new forecast, the economic prospects continue to spoil for the war opponents of Russia and Ukraine. In Russia, growth for 2025 is likely to halve to two percent compared to the previous year, the Vienna Institute for International Economic Comparative (WIIW) said. For 2026, Moscow can only expect an increase of 1.8 percent.
The main responsibility for the decline is the monetary braking of the Moscow central bank to get inflation under control. The high interest rates of 20 percent choked the economy because loans became unaffordable and many citizens left their money on the bench, said Wiiw Russia expert Vasily Astrov. “Unsurprisingly, there is also a wave of bankruptcy with companies, some of which could also grasp large corporations and leading companies.”
Problems for Kyiv: destruction and bad harvest
It doesn’t look better for Ukraine. The destruction of critical infrastructure by Russian attacks leaves deeper traces, according to the Ukraine expert at the thinking factory, Olga Pindyuk. “Even the intensified shortage of labor through the mobilization for the war is difficult for the economy.”
In addition, the effects of a bad harvest in Ukraine and the preliminary end of customs balance for agricultural exports would come into the EU. For 2025, the institute revised growth compared to the spring forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 2.5 percent. Inflation in the country is 16 percent. The key interest rates are correspondingly high.
Southeast Europe continues to cope with Western Europe
Among the 23 countries in Central, East and Southeast Europe examined for the summer forecast, Poland, each with 3.5 percent in this and next year, rage. In addition, Bulgaria, Croatia and Lithuania could also expect a noticeable economic plus.
Many countries in Eastern and Southeast Europe would grow more strongly in 2025 and 2026 thanks to private consumption than the euro zone. “You will be able to continue your economic catch -up process towards Western Europe,” said the institute.
dpa
Source: Stern
