The balance of the Balance of payments of the second quarter of the year would have thrown a deficit of US $ 3,909 millionaccording to private estimates, so that in the First half of 2025 would have accumulated US $ 9,101 million.
The calculations correspond to the stock market Cohen financial allies, which in turn projects another red balance of U $ 3,974 million in the third quarter and another of US $ 4,162 million for the fourth.
In this way, the government would accumulate throughout the 2025 A negative balance of the current account of U $ S17.236 million. If everything remains so far, that deficit would have to be covered with entry of financial dollars.
In that sense, the entity states that Between January and March the financial account of Argentina lost US $ 436 million, Instead between April and June registered income US $ 20.346 millionS, which include the US $ 13,000 million of the IMF, the repo of US $ 2,000 million, the US $ 1,500 million of Bonte 2030 and other resources.
According to Cohen, In the third quarter the financial account will have income for US $ 3,055 millions and in the last section of the year inputs by US $ 555 million.
For its side, the evolution of International BCRA reserves would be US $ 5,698 million in the first quarter of the year; U $ S16,437 in the second; U $ S919 million negative, in the third; YU $ S1,393 million positive at the end of the year.
He Net reservations for the year would be US $ 11.213 million, without having bought dollars genuinely for the BCRA and taking into account all the loans received. Actually, then, without this, the net international reserves would end in negative terrain in 2025. Cohen estimates that as of June 25 the net reserves were US $ 8,745, but without the background money they would be about US $ 3,000 negatives.
JP Morgan gets alert
During the weekend a report of the JP Morgan Investment Bank that recommends investors to “take a break” from Argentina Regarding long -term bonds and letters, Lecaps and Boncaps. It suggests to your investors to get out of these instruments.
The entity says that while it has a “constructive” look on the economic program of Argentina, It suggests waiting now until after the longer term investments elections.
The IMF visit was over
If the spirit of the agreement with the Washington headquarters with headquarters was for Argentina Trying to defend the “Crawling Peg” at 1% until reaching the elections, that will not really happen. The Government will have spent 2025 using dollars borrowed to pay maturities, with a highly negative balance of payments. In Cohen they understand that “something would have to happen.” After the elections.
Source: Ambito
