The government ended the temporary decline of withholdings to soybeans. Thus, the bean reaps an aliquot of 33% and its derivatives of 31%. Prices dropped immediately and in the industry anticipate that sales will be stopped. Except for pending liquidation statements, they expect a lower currency flow until November, although they do not rule out that economics at some point grant another reduction. They are without selling about US $ 15,000 million in grains.
As they had anticipated President Javier Milei and his Minister of Economy, Luis Caputothe temporal decline of corn retentions, soybeans and its derivatives ended in June. The economic team made the decision to extend the benefit only for wheat and barley, thinking above all in the producer’s sowing prospects for the next harvest.
The explanation extended by the government to the sector is that The measure could not be sustained by the fiscal cost. The agricultural consultant Javier Preciado Patiño, estimates that around US $ 800 million since February were stopped. Although forward with a lower price, sales could stop and also negatively impact fiscal accounts.
“The grain sales flow will fall significantly, the volume will be resent, it will go down”Gustavo Idígoras anticipated, head of the Oil Industry Chamber of the Argentine Republic (Ciara). Before, the benchmark of the Andrés Costamagna rural society had pointed out in dialogue with now that the reduction would extend until the end of the year: “They will be dry until November,” he said.
How much soy is it?
In the last three business days of temporary leave Exporters filed statements for the equivalent AU $ S2.7 billion. Because of the way in which the incentive was armed, companies have from that date fifteen days to realize the liquidation, so it is expected that in the first days of July they continue to enter currencies to the market.
The brake would appear towards the end of the month, just at the time when the sustainability of the deficit in the external sector is discussed. Facing the elections, the government needs to keep the dollar at bayin order to contain inflation. For that, in the face of a growing demand for currency for imports, treasury and broadcasting, it needs a firm offer.
“We had five very good months, we are 23% above the amount of currencies entered to this date. There are pending market for sale about 22 million tons of soybeans and about seven or eight million corn“Idígoras estimated and explained” they are about US $ 15,000 million, whose liquidation speed will depend on the attractiveness of the price. “
In this context, and Waiting for certainties, the market operators characterized the first days of the week as a “desert.” They stressed that “there were practically no sales” and that “the factories were handled without a price.”
A new decline in retentions?
In the government they say that the volume of reserves does not worry because as long as the fiscal surplus is maintained, there will be no pressure on the exchange rate. In the field they look sideways and ensure that for those US $ 15,000 million pending A better price has to appear: either due to withdrawal or for a higher exchange rate.
Export sector sources They did not rule out that closer to the elections the government announced a new temporal decline. “It is a tool that worked for them and that at any other time can reuse again,” they revealed to this medium, dialogue with officials in between.
The looks will be placed in the new dynamic that the market acquires in the next few days, with less incentives of the producers to sell and with a volume of production that is stagnant more than a decade ago, The industry could resign margins not to run out of matter to process.
Source: Ambito
