Private estimates projected a strong contribution of currencies by agribusiness that could even exceed the amount entered last month.
Despite what The withholdings re -governed for exports of soybeans and corn from July, Millions of dollars from the field are still being settledas can be seen from Affidavit statements abroad (DJVE) which were made during the past month and should enter the exchange market this month. Private estimates talk about an amount of almost U $ 4,500 millionwhich would exceed June and It would locate as one of the months of greatest liquidation that is recorded.
The analysts of the Consultant 1816 They estimated that “Agro will provide an extraordinary contribution of currency in July”, based on the base that “cereals liquidated U $ s3.7 billionbut they presented themselves by U $ 8,150 million which must be liquidated within 15 business days to access the reduced aliquot of retentions. “What gives A difference of US $ 4,450 million.
“It is possible that July 2025 culminates being The second best month in history in terms of liquidation of agribusinessafter September 2022 of the first Soy dollar“, they raised. At that time, the entry of currencies to the country through the soybean complex, grains, flour and oil, surpassed US $ 7,500 million.
The flow of dollars grows
From Personal Portfolio Inverters (PPI) They reached a similar conclusion, although they were a bit more conservative in their calculations: “We estimate that They would be missing around US $ 3,550 millionconsidering that Djve They are valued at US $ 6,950 million and the liquidation was only US $ 396 million“
Harvest field withholdings
Depositphotos
In this regard, they stressed that this Wednesday the sector liquidated U $ S517 million“The largest amount since May 31, 2023 (US $ S792 million) ” During one of the editions of the Export Increase Program implemented by former Minister Sergio Massa. In this way, they added that “they take liquidation US $ 1,167 million So far this week, more than double the U $ S522 million registered in the previous three days. “
Opportunity to buy reservations and exchange pressure
1816 stated that “After this rain of dollars, which could allow the treasure to buy some reservationsthe August-November period looks especially challenging. “The low level of dollars In the coffers of Central Bank It is a concern not only of local consultants, but also of foreign banks, such as Barclay’s and JP Morgan, who during the last days emphasized that the agency that Santiago Bausili drives swells their reserves.
According to a report ADCAP“The BCRA is dangerously low in reservations” with a gross stock that would be around US $ 28,000 million, “half of what the IMF parameters themselves suggest as prudent“
“Anyway, not to lose sight of the fact that in the first 3 days of this week we already saw An extraordinary offer of agriculture and that did not prevent the exchange rate“added the consultant directed by Adrian Rozanski. Despite the calm of this day in the exchange sector, the currency rose in the range of 2-2.5% in its quotes of the retail, blue and financial market.
Source: Ambito
