Last week, Indec reported a current account deficit of more than US $ 5,000 millionmainly explained by a “red” of US $ 4,502 million in services, the deepest negative figure since there are records. Likewise, the result in services has its main origin in the Tourism boom abroadencouraged by the delay in the exchange rate.
The recent data from the Central Bank (BCRA) were in the same direction. Between January and May the accumulated services deficit reached US $ 4,915 million, number that already exceeded the registered in all 2024. The main currency exit tap was that of the concept “trips, passages and other card payments” with almost US $ 4,100 million.
As for the goods, the growth that imports are throwing, within the framework of the cheap dollar and commercial opening, stands out. The sector that has been consumed most in net terms, according to INDEC data, is the automotive.
The government ensures that the dollar deficit is not worrying
The Minister of Economy, Luis Caputohe said that, although the government pays attention to the current account, the deficit does not represent a concern and even It is something “necessary”, since it is the result of transactions between private and not of an excess of pesos generated by a fiscally irresponsible state.
Within the framework of an exhibition for the Summit 2025 of the IAE, the official set as an example that of a person who buys dollars because he wants to travel with his family, and another who wants to sell because he wants to pay the rent. “The two are happy with their transaction,” he said.
Does the fiscal surplus guarantee external stability?
In this regard, a report of the Economic Studies Management of the Province Bank partially agreed that The fiscal surplus helps to give sustainability to external accounts Fundamentally by three channels: 1) because it moderates the growth of domestic demand and therefore of imports, 2) because the private sector has the weights that “wants”, and the amount of money is close to balance, so that there are no surplus weights waiting to run to the dollar and 3) because the debt should not increase since there is no fiscal deficit to finance.
However, the entity remarked that “exchange appreciation accelerates import growth” and that stagnation of reserves grow “complicates the relationships/dollars.” In that sense, While the economy can have the weights to face the different demands (both for imports, and for trips or debt payments), the problem for the province is that dollars are missingwhich is why the country risk does not yield great improvements.
“The order of the fiscal surplus is lost due to the disorder of exchange appreciation. The current account deficit can be sustained while there are dollars to finance it, be it credit or reservations. But, if the market is not reopened and the reserves do not grow, it does not matter if the imbalance responds to investments, consumption or tourism: it matters that the dollars are not, “they warned.
The opinion of economists
Given the official justification, economists wonder Why the State cannot spend more pesos than they enter, but the economy can spend more dollars than it generates genuinely.
Gonzalo Carreraeconomist of the consultant balances, coincided with the analysis of the province in which The fiscal surplus is a necessary condition To relieve external accounts, because it helps reduce pressure on currency demand, But not a sufficient condition.
“The current account deficit that we have today is not as bulky as 2017-2018, but It occurs in a context where you have no reservationssomething you had in those years, “said the Master and a professor at the University of Buenos Aires (UBA). In that sense, he marked the relevance of having a greater stock of reservations to soften any shock that can come.
In parallel, Carrera added the comparison in the field of external financing, which today does not exist and if it existed until the beginning of 2018. In that sense, he marked that the medium -term trend is more worrying than the current level, taking into account that the path chosen by the ruling seems to go towards a greater need for financing without a credit market already arranged to finance it.
Source: Ambito
