Gross liquid reserves have recovered strongly in the last months at US $ 16,000 million as of June 23 (last available) and Economic activity shows a robust expansion. This is stated by the last report on Argentina from Banco JP Morgan. The entity maintains its annual growth forecast of 5.3% by 2025 although it leaves open the possibility that the increase is higher.
The document indicates that he red account of the balance of payments It was reduced after the implementation of the new policy frame on April 11 (exchange flotation). Registered a deficit of US $ 100 million in May, against US $ 600 million the previous month YU $ S1.5 billion average imbalance in the first quarter of the year.
The main factor that promoted this improvement was the Increased export flows to the official currency market (U $ 800 million in the month). The work emphasizes that, although the elimination of the combined exchange scheme of exports 80/20% in mid -April was the main cause behind the increase in export tickets, external sales are also increasing.
As for the services, it is argued that the imbalance was also reduced, but points out that the red so far this year “stood in some considerable US $ 5,100 millionexpanding at US $ 4,200 million since the same period of the previous year. ”explains that this is fundamentally due to the Tourism outputs “in the middle of a strong weight and a real recovery of income.”
On the side of the financial account, in May a deficit of US $ 2,000 million was recorded, above the average red of US $ 300 million of the first quarter. This imbalance is mainly explained by Purchases of external assets of the non -financial private sector. After the lifting of the restrictions that individuals had to access the official currency market, purchases arrived AU S3.2 billion, the highest figure since August 2019 (between 2016 and 2019, the monthly average was US $ 1.8 billion).
This output was partially compensated for an increase in dollars in dollars for US $ 1,300 million in the month, as well as for US $ 500 million in tickets of multilateral organizations. Meanwhile, both the portfolio investment remained relatively weak during May, although it is expected to increase in June after the recent emissions in pesos for US $ 1,500 million that were signed in the US currency.
Upturn
JP Morgan’s report argues that “to measure the external paid capacity of the Treasury, the focus is in the short term in the stock of gross liquid reserves of the Central Bank” (that is, gross reserves excluded gold holdings and the swap granted by China). When observing this metric, it stands out that reservations have been recovered strongly in recent months to US $ 16,000 million as of June 23 (last available) compared to US $ 1,000 million registered at the beginning of April (Before the modification of the exchange rate regime).
The estimate of net reserves of this bank (which remains deposit lace in US dollars, swap lines and other liabilities) stood in Less US $ 3,900 million, recovering from the least US $ 7,200 million at the end of May.
This recomposition in the last month was promoted by a repo operation for US $ 2,000 million with international banks YU $ S1.5 billion in pesos emissions (subscribed in the US currency). In addition, the treasure announced that he had bought US $ 200 million in the official exchange market.
In this way, it is pointed out that Treasury deposits in the BCRA amount to $ 4.6 billion, A figure similar to US $ 4,300 million in capital payments plus interest that expires on July 9.
Facing the future, JP Morgan considers that The continuous capital entries to the financial account (both in the form of multilateral loans and/or direct foreign investment or portfolio investments) “They are still key to the accumulation of reserves, particularly to the extent that we enter the third quarter of the year, which is characterized by a lower seasonal income of agriculture and a greater demand for dollars due to winter holidays this time, also impacted, in addition, by the mid -term elections.”
Source: Ambito
