According to First budget data of 2026 that the Government sent to the Congress -to the advance of the project that will be presented on September 15 -, The effective tax pressure in Argentina will rise half a point on GDP compared to this year.
The data show that, although The government tax policy seeks a reduction in legal burden through Tax elimination or aliquot discounts, on the other, the effective tax charge will rise next year, in the same way that it will do so in 2025, in order to complete An increase in a point of the GDP of greater pressure.
What would indicate the official project for the next year is that with less legal load it will be collected more in terms of GDP. Keep in mind that the tax pressure is measured as the relationship between collection with respect to the product.
You can give years when combined resources decrease With a drop in activity, which could give less fiscal pressure, or years in which greater income is combined with the expansion of the activity.
In 2024, according to the 2025 project not approved, a total of $ 127 billion pesos Collection equivalent to 22.37% of GDP, but this had fallen 1.7%, according to INDEC.
In 2025, the project not approved by Congress proposes to reach $ 175 billion in tax resources, which implies 22.97% of GDP, with an economy that grows to 5.5%. Thus, this year the tax pressure could rise 0.55 points to meet the projections with respect to 2024.
In 2026, the pressure will rise half a point
Now, by 2026 Luis Caputo’s economic team argues that it will be squeezed Through the more point of GDP to the private sector.
The note sent to the Legislative Power indicates that “The collection of national taxes and social security contributions in 2026 is estimated to increase 22.3% with respect to of the projected collection by 2025, increasing 0.51 points of the GDP compared to the previous year ”.
If the projections of this year and 2026 were fulfilled, the government would have increased The effective tax pressure at 1 point from GDP from the moment he assumed.
“This change in total tax pressure responds mainly for the net effect of modifications in the macroeconomic context, as well as to tax policy measures ”explains the government.
The note indicates that “the estimated rise of the Nominal collection is explained by projected increases in economic activity, The volumes of foreign trade, taxable remuneration and jobs, prices and exchange rate and the increases in the profits of human people and societies ”.
“In the same sense, the highest expected income corresponding to The payment facilities regimes, ”says the Executive Power note.
The government estimates that, in 2026, VAT that represents 31% of the total collection would increase by 18.7% Regarding the year 2025.
On the other hand, income from Profit Tax will rise 23.2%. On the other hand, the collection of the personal property tax is estimated that it will decrease by 13%.
The income estimated by the IMPUses about liquid fuels and carbon dioxide would grow by 61.2% while export rights would increase 66.7%. Import tariffs would have an increase of 7% higher than that registered in 2025. On the other hand, the tax on credits and debits in bank accounts and other operators would register a rise of 20.2% and social security contributions would grow by 17.9%.
Source: Ambito
