The official dollar of the National Bank registered its highest weekly rise in more than a month. Thus, it reached $ 1,260, while the wholesaler closed at $ 1,241, above the highest value than the one provided for in the 2026 budget.
The beginning of July He arrived with tension on the exchange front. He Official dollar It went up and is $ 1260, while the blue dollar advanced $ 25 and quotes at $ 1210 for purchase and $ 1230 for sale. The movement lit some alerts between analysts, which already evaluate the panorama of the second semester.
Before the last rise of the currency, the economist and director of the Center for Economic Studies of OJF, Fausto Spotorno, relativized the impact of the exchange jump and ruled out a crisis scenario. “All joules rises the dollar because people have the bonus and go out to buy dollars”he explained.
In addition, he added that “In July the withholdings rise again, then the exporters have already liquidated much, before they rise,” and pointed out the dynamics of flotation bands as another factor: “If the dollar was closer to the floor than from the roof, It was likely to move. It is nothing worrying that it moves while inside the bands. “
Dollar Spotor
The economist also differentiated the current context from which the country lived in 2018 during the presidency of Mauricio Macri and remarked that now “There is no carry because there is no capital entrance. ”
Dollars or fixed term? The conservative saver dilemma
Asked about the recent JP Morgan report, which decided to withdraw its recommendation on Argentine bonds, Spotorno minimized the impact: “It’s not a novelty.” According to the bank, although it maintains a positive vision in the medium term, for now it prefers to “step back and wait for better entry levels to be registered.”
Spotorno summarized the approach with a clear phrase: “It is what any Argentine who most or less knows markets says: try to reach the elections with less risk.”
On the behavior of the average saver, he said: “I buy dollars or make a fixed term is the question that all Argentines are asked. A lot of people want to keep their money because it is conservative at the financial level. He is not thinking what JP Morgan thinks about the carry trade and the rate. What we are seeing is what any Argentine knows, And someone conservative is going to be thrown through the most conservative option, which is the dollar. “
In the face of the coming months, the economist anticipated possible official movements after the elections: “When the electoral noise passes, it will begin to take measures in debt, financial and exchange policy,” he concluded.
Source: Ambito
