With the July 9 deadline Already on the horizon, the administration of the president of the United States, Donald Trump, last details of a new tariff step. In his words, he will “completely cover” the business partners not closed in advance. Although official notifications will be sent will be sent between this Sunday and tomorrow, the US government said that the fees will range from the 10% and 70%depending on the country.
Trump suspended his highest rates for 90 days and is expected to go back into force. Experts say there are three possible scenarios: reach an agreement with Washington, obtain an extension or face higher tariffs.
Donald Trump tariffs and commercial war of the United States: what is at stake
“There will be a set of agreements that we will reach before July 9”declared the Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Besent, on Friday at the CNBC. The official repeats for weeks that Washington focused on reaching agreements with about 18 key partners.
“Vietnam, India and Taiwan are still promising candidates for an agreement,” The vice president of the Institute of Policy of Asian Society (ASPI), Wendy Cutler, declared AFP. Is that if an agreement, the Vietnam’s reciprocal tariff increases from the 10% to 46%, that of India at 26% and that of Taiwan at 32%.
Josh Lipsky, Expert from the Atlantic Council analysis group, is based on the recent extension of the visit of Indian negotiators to the United States. “It looks like one of the main candidates”said.
“Japan was in that category, but the situation has retreated a bit“Lipsky said, referring to Trump’s criticism on Monday about what the president called Japan’s reluctance to accept US rice exports. Analysts consider unlikely that the agreements become full -fledged commercial agreements.
Since April Washington has only announced a framework agreement with the United Kingdom and agreed with China to temporarily reduce retaliation tariffs.
The international impact of Trump’s tariffs
A JP Morgan report estimates that the tariff load could fall on American employers – not in foreign producers – for a total of a total of U $ S82.300milloneswith effects on consumer prices, supply and employment chains.
In this way, three points arise that analysts observe in this framework:
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Watch edge negotiations: United States temporarily suspended the highest levies (10% or 50%) to give margin to bilateral agreements that will be resolved before July 9.
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Magnitude plans: Trump promises that the first collection flows will arrive from the August 1after notifications begin.
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Hit sectors: The new measures already include a 50% overarancel on steel and aluminum, with impacts that extend to industrial supplies.
Trump activates its commercial “day”: which Argentine sectors are in the sights of tariffs
Argentina had diplomatic negotiations, making about 70% to 80% of its exports avoid additional tariffs, except steel and aluminum. According to official data, a 100 products list Benefit with zero rate against global 10%tariff.
Even so, metals are still taxed. The steel will face a 50% tariff (expansion from the initial 25%), which represents a challenge for the local siderometallurgical sector.
Milei Trump.jpg
The White House
President Javier Milei, aligned with the Trump administration, said Argentina adapted its regulations to the policy of “reciprocal tariffs”, but warned arrests to measures considered discriminatory.
Risks and projections for tariffs
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Volatility in emerging markets: Similar to what happened in April, when the “Liberation Day” tariffs (April 2), global markets suffered strong falls. In Argentina, Merval fell 8.2% and the country risk returned over 900 points.
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Pressure on Argentine exporters: If exemptions are not expanded, steel export sectors and their derivatives could see their competitiveness reduced in the US.
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Global inflation: According to JP Morgan, commercial tightening could be moved at prices, affecting inflation internationally.
Source: Ambito
