The Government has a clear conviction that the liberation of foreign trade is essential to guarantee the competition and accessibility of the population to better quality products, already lower price. However, specialists warned that The opening is not being carried out within the framework of a development strategy, so its negative effects tend to be more relevant than the positive ones.
This was reflected by a report from Foundorganization dedicated to the study, research and design of public policies for sustainable and inclusive development. According to the calculations embodied in this work, entitled “Open without parachute”, libertarian policies could increase imports by US $12,391 (at 2024 prices).
This external purchasing boom, without any compensatory measure, would produce a 2.6% drop in the gross production value and 2.2% in the gross added value of the economy. Besides, would put the use of 431,452 workers at risk (2.3% of the positions in the private sector).
The calculations were made under the assumption that imports are approaching the record reached in 2017, measures in quantities, with a real exchange rate appreciated as in April 2025 and a GDP similar to the levels of 2023.
Who most affects Javier Milei’s commercial opening
At the sector level, the commercial opening promoted by President Javier Milei’s teams mainly affect the manufacturing industrywhich concentrates 65% of jobs at risk, according to founding projections. Within the industry, the most harmed activities in absolute terms are “other industries” (where the manufacture of furniture, mattresses and toys, for example), the production of textiles, clothing and footwear, and wooden, and wooden.
In percentage terms, the electronics industry is that with the most important alarm signal; In the manufacture of radio and television receptors, more than 90% of jobs are at risk.
image.png
At the provincial level, the large districts of the downtown area would be the most number of workers would lose, with Buenos Aires at the head. However, as a percentage is Tierra del Fuego the most costs would assumealso highlighting the presence of Misiones and La Rioja among the five with the worst perspective.
In addition, this labor destruction would have a greater impact on men, young adults, and sectors with medium educational level.
The four ingredients to achieve a “Developist” commercial opening
Funda acknowledged that commercial opening is important to promote competition, and thus innovation. However, they added that this It must be part of a “developmental” strategy, which contemplates a battery of complementary initiatives.
In that sense, on the one hand they highlighted the Need for some macroeconomic reforms, linked both with the excessive load tax burden, as well as the management in the price of the dollar. “It cannot be opened when the exchange rate is so appreciated (and is so unsustainable),” said the report prepared by Leonardo Park, Matías Gutman, Nadia Schuffer, Belén Bentivegna and Santiago Capobianco.
The authors noted that “although the main sources of labor impact continue to be commercial opening measures (mainly the elimination of non -tariff barriers), The appreciated exchange rate significantly amplifies the negative effects“Specifically,” if the real exchange rate had remained at the 2023 levels, the use at risk would be 355,158 positions, that is, 76,294 less than in the simulated stage with the exchange rate of April 2025 “.
Second, they pointed out the Importance of “offensive” industrial policiesprioritize sectors with greater potential and seek to take a leap in exports.
In terms of employment, they called to build a “Protection network” to labor sources that are at risk for the competence of imports, which includes reconversion policies towards other activities.
Finally, the work said that “none of this will work” without “Investment in infrastructure to lower logistics costs of companies and in the scientific and technological system to reverse the fugging of talent. “
Source: Ambito
