These are Profit Estimates Consultants based on data from the Congress Budget (OPC) office. In 2025 the survival could survive, but it would be complicated in 2026
Although from the Government It is noted that if they prosper in The Congress the Package of Expenditure promoted by the governors of the provinces sE could lose the surplus prosecutor, according to some analysts The impact would be important, but not to the point of leaving the accounts in red.
According to Profit consultants, based on the Congress Budget Office (OPC), This year the opposition packet could affect 0.73% of the internal gross product (GDP). Measured against the goal of Javier Milei’s maximum of reaching 1.6% of favorable balance, this yearor a 0.87%surplus could be left.
But it is to remember that the April agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) proposes a 1.3% primary surplus goal for 2025. Milei added 0.3 points, perhaps to demonstrate to political actors that expense cuts can be made if there is a will to do so. Measured against it, the new expense that governors would impose would leave a 0.57%surplus.
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According to Profit Consultores, the Law of National Disability Emergency would cost between 0.25% and 0.45%. The adjustment of 7.2% retirements This year it would cost 0.20% and the increase in the bonus of $ 70,000 to $ 115,000 another 0.17%.
On the other hand, transform the tax to Fuels in Coparticipable and the distribution of the Fund of National Treasury Contributions It would take another 0.2% of GDP.
In 2026, Meanwhile, The fiscal cost of the pension package would go to 0.71% of GDP. If the maximum cost of the most combustible disability law is maintained and the cost of the Package would be 1.37% of GDP. So that The problem would appear next year Because if you do not mediate a firmer economic recovery, income and expenses numbers would be very even.
The case of retirement
The main expense of the State is that of the pension system. ANSES arrives eranged in the First 5 months a total of 16.9 billionwhile The extraordinary bonus has delivered $ 1,248 billion. As that component is not updated by CPI as the pension being, Component spending dropped 31% in real terms Regarding the first five months of last year. There are about $ 250,000 million per month that would have to rise 64% to $ 410,000 million to mes if it went up to $ 115,000 per retired of the minimum.
There are $ 160,000 million more expenses that could be paid by the Government if, for example, the idea of reaching 1.6% of GDP will leave aside of surplus and be content with 1.3% agreed with the bottom.
Source: Ambito
