The entity considers that this gap will be compensated by a surplus in the financial account, what will allow A certain accumulation of reservations of currencies.
At a time when economic operators continue with special attention the behavior of the external front and the variations of the dollar, this Thursday a new report of An important bank -Morgan Stanley- that, after updating the projections for Argentina, now expects a “manageable” deficit equivalent to 2.2% of GDP for this year in the current account.
The entity considers that this gap will be compensated by a surplus in the financial account, what will allow A certain accumulation of reservations of currencies. In a message that will surely be well received by the authorities of the Ministry of Economy, he argues that “With the exchange rate floating inside a wide band, the risks that the metric balance of payments deteriorate markedly seem content.”
After qualifying as the imbalance of 2.2% of GDP in the current account by 2025, Morgan Stanley foresees A financial account surplus of 2.7% of GDP That not only will this imbalance compensate, but also allow the Central Bank to add reservations.
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The Paper maintains that the country is accumulating reservations and remains up to date with the debt payments in foreign exchange, but estimates a deficit of US $ 2,800 million with respect to the objective agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the first review (June 13).
Evaluates that the recent measures aimed at underpinning currency reserves and compliance with key indicators, such as fiscal objectives, “They should keep the IMF program in operation.”
Since the exchange rate floats within a wide band, he affirms that “the risks of a crisis in the balance of payments are to some extent content”, but warns that so that the current account deficit is sustained for prolonged periods, “”Argentina would need to depend on more sustainable sources of flow entry to the financial account. ”
Source: Ambito
