The ghost of an inflation acceleration surveys Argentina due to the increase in the official dollar. He June Consumer Price Index (CPI) would close around 2%, something above 1.5% May. Although, after the acceleration of the dollar, the market begins to wonder about the prices path for July. In the seventh month of the year, the currency has already uploaded $ 50 (+4.2%) In the first 10 days.
The Consultants They began to publicize their measurements about the inflation of the first weeks of Julywith minimal acceleration in some cases and stability in others. The first estimates do not show impact of the dollar increase, “but we hope to see what happens this week,” the specialists stand out.
“There is more dynamism in things linked to tourism, but in what is food and drinks and the most common set of products is very quiet. For now there is no greater impact, and that is very good. Although this is day by day, so you have to wait a little bit“He analyzed Camilo Tiscornia, of C&T associated.
What will happen to inflation after the increase in the dollar?
During the first week of July, Relected foods and beverages increased 0.7%on average, Which implies that against the same week of June, when it closed without variation, it shows an acceleration, according to the measurement of the consultant LCG.
“More than 50% of weekly inflation was explained by the increase in bakeries, although the fall of dairy coursted the effect”stood out from the consultant.
On the other hand, the Measurement of the second week of July -What is done from Friday to Thursday- slowed down to 0.3%with the meat (+1.9%) as a spearhead, while the decline of Panified (-2.7%) It was the most significant of the week after reheating in the first of the month.
Meanwhile, from ANALYTICS a weekly variation of the 0.9% in the Greater Buenos Aires food and drink priceswhich shows an increase of 0.2 percentage points (PP) compared to the first month of June and 0.4 pp compared to May 1.
He greater increase in the average of the last four weeks It occurred in coffee, tea, herb and cocoa (+4.7%) and Sugar, sweets, chocolate and sweets (+3.8%). Among the categories with lower increases They meet dairy (+1.5%) and bread and cereals (+1.2%). On the other hand, there is a Reduction in the average price of fruits (-0.2%).
What about regulated price increases?
The PXQ consultant It registered in the first week of July a 0.9%increase, in line with the first week of the previous month. “The divisions that contributed the most to the variation were: housing, water, electricity and other fuels; transport and food and drinks”they highlighted.
“In the case of Dwelling, Increases influenced Real estate rentals (+4.0%) and in public services such as gas (+2.0%), electricity in GBA (+2.0%) and water in GBA (+1.0%). Within Transport, Increases in the fuels (+1.8%) and the increase in the value of collective passage (+3.5%) and subway (+3.4%)“, they said from Pxq.
In addition, they also highlighted increases in the regulated category, mainly driven by You raise fuels and public services (Electricity, gas, water, communications and public transport). Prices increases were also verified seasonalespecially in categories linked to Winter holidayssuch as tourist packages and accommodations.
“Facing the closing of the month, the first estimate suggests that July inflation could be located at levels similar to those of June, subject to what may happen with the exchange rate and its effects on prices,” summarized from Pxq, that measured a variation of 2% For the sixth month of the year.
Source: Ambito
