Local analysts expect an advance of 1.9% inflation during the month of Juneafter what was the monthly brand of May 1.5%, the minor of the government of Javier Milei and the lowest since April 2020, during the Covid-19 Pandemia.
According to the last reuters poll, the estimates of 15 Argentine and foreign economic analysts reflected an average advance of the same percentage for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) In the sixth month of the year.
From C&T economic advisors pointed out that their IPC survey “presented a 2% monthly increase in June, slightly exceeding 1.8% in May (estimated by the consultant) and 1.5% that the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) He informed for that month. “However, they emphasize that” it was again the lowest since 2020 “.
The consultant also recalled that “May had been a month of inflation particularly low due to some factors that did not repeat itself in June.”
“No disinflation process is linear”
Regarding survey, The projections of the respondents ranged between a minimum variation of 1.4% and a maximum of 2.0% for the CPI in the middle of the year. “No disinflation process is linear, so it is natural to observe some month with a slightly higher inflation,” said Eugenio Marí, chief economist of the Freedom and Progreso Foundation (LYP).
“More when we think they are the first months after the exchange unification and that several relative prices are still looking for their balance,” Marí added.
On the other hand, for July the relievers foresee an IPC less than 1.9%. “As we are observing that the depreciation rhythm of our currency has been very low, We estimate that July will be slightly located below June. This would be unusual, as Julio is usually shown higher inflation, “said Aldo Abram, economist and executive director of LYP.
“But, to the extent that the depreciation of our currency is slowed, so does inflation. Therefore, we could expect a few tenths less, with a level close to 1.7% for the month of July,” he added.
Source: Ambito
