He Government could fall short of funds in 2025. Upon reaching the middle of the year, the national budget is executed slightly in relation to the historical average. If the trend will be maintained than adjust the expense or expand budget credits.
This is what they point out from the Argentine Public Budget Association (ASAP). The level of execution of this year’s budget expenses, which is the extended 2023 and 2024, It is 45% to June. This is the highest level of the last 10 years.
For now, the budget is maintained within the planned parameters, although if the tax package approved by the Senate would prosper would have to make modifications.
The average, Budget execution since 2015 in Argentina for the first semester is approximately 40%. In the second half of the year there are historically the highest expenditure levels. Means that in 2025 there would be a on execution of 5 points. That is due to the effect of the pension adjustment formula.
That is why in ASAP they estimate that the $ 126 billion of budget credits planned for the year in force could fall short. Or the national government slows down the pace of the expense or will have to add greater income to sustain the supéravit planned 1.6% of GDP that the Government expects.
Through administrative decision 3/25, the Chief of Cabinet approved at the beginning of the year the adaptation of the expenses and resources of the extended budget through Decree 1131/2024.
However, more modifications were added: the decree of necessity and urgency (DNU) 186/25 that authorizes a decrease in expenses for $ 8,075 million; the administrative decision 10/25 that increases the credit in force by $ 24,800 million; and the recent one DNU 425/25, which increased the resources in force by $ 43.86 billion, while the expenses did so at $ 31.39 billion in relation to the previous credit.
According to ASAP, in accumulated terms to the first semester, the Financial result and the primary base accrued of the National Public Administration (APN) were positive with $ 13.93 billion and $ 19.03 billion, respectively. This is linked to the exceptional income of the BCRA profits registered in April.
“If these profits are excluded, the overlapping character of both results is maintained, but at a lower level: the financial result becomes $ 1.64 billion and the primary of $ 6.73 billion,” says the report.
Expressed percentage of the total income of the APN, not including the profits of the BCRA, it is observed that after the first six months of 2025 the financial result was equivalent to 2.3% of those resources, 1.5 points greater than the one obtained in the same period of 2024 (0.8%). However, if this situation with which it governed in the first six months of 2023 is compared, when the deficit represented 34.5% of the total income, dimension of the structural change of national public accounts is taken.
Source: Ambito
