Marina Dal Poggeto’s analysis on the rise in the dollar
The first of the factors to which the economist awards the increase of the dollar is directly linked to the electoral calendar. “In the pre -electoral months, the exchange pressure appears, and this opportunity is given a context Background It led you to get the stocks to people, You left it to companiesbut the formation of external assets increased significantly and It is putting pressure in the exchange and probably in the price dynamics“, held.
Dal Poggetto also pointed out as second central element The partial departure of the stocks. “Now, in fact, the scheme is operating without exchange gap. What does that mean? It means that, to the extent that you let people buy all the dollars they want, if there is a gap, there is business. Then they buy the officer and sell the financial. That rulo is taking the bulk of the formation of external assets”, Deepened.
Finally, the third factor that highlighted is related to the dynamics of the agro -export sector: The end of the harvest seasonality limits the offer of dollars In the market, which deepens tensions.
Faced with this panorama, the economist described a government that seeks to “put all the meat to the grill” to hold stability to electionswhile pressures on the exchange, political and fiscal front continue to accumulate. Within that framework, he anticipated the need for A change of strategy after the October legislative elections.
The “recalibration” of the exchange scheme
Thus, Dal Poggetto raised two different scenarios on the currency: what happens before and after the elections. In this sense, the economist raised the need for a “recalibration” that he described as a key to Realine the economic program with the original terms of the agreement reached with the International Monetary Fund in April.
According to Dal Poggetto’s analysis, the executive deviated from the initial plan, which contemplated a higher exchange rate and higher interest rates as tools to accumulate reservations. Thus, the economist remarked that the government “breached key goals“And that, after the elections, must face a correction of the course. The challenge, he warned, will be to do it”Without disagreeing expectations“Both devaluation and inflation.
Dollar Caputo
The electoral result, stated, will be decisive for the transition. A favorable scenario, according to your reading, could “decompress the country risk and reopen access to credit ”, which would allow to replace the current financing based on monetary issuance with an “more orthodox and sustainable.” Described the current scheme as “Pretty pragmatic and sui generis.”
The future of the exchange regime would also be tied to that new context. The goal, he said, is to move towards The abandonment of the administered flotation system that today is held with specific interventions and multiple controls.
“The anchor will appear if the band’s roof is credible. And I believe that there will be all the chips put, in trying that the futures do not exceed the roof of the band, especially after December, ”he concluded.
Source: Ambito
