State finance
Growing US debts make global financial sectors nervous
The issue of government debt is back. However, Greece or Italy are currently the main suspects – but the USA. President Trump plays a significant role.
The rapid rapid US state debt worries the international capital markets. Many financial companies and economists see growing mistrust against the fiscal political course of the United States. These include, for example, the US investment bank Goldman Sachs, the DWS, which belongs to Deutsche Bank, the Italian bank UniCredit or the federal support bank KfW. Nobody assumes that a US state debt crisis will threaten in the near future, some financial companies such as Munich Re still see the United States as safe port for investors. However, observers are increasingly considering a major crisis in a few years.
Place of scope for errors is smaller
“The United States still has scope for adjustments, but the scope for mistakes is getting smaller,” warns Christian Scherrmann, the economist of the DWS responsible for the USA. “Delays increase the risk of a non -linear financial crisis in which the trust of the markets suddenly disappears.” “Nonlinear” is the elegant expression that big crises have always come at unforeseen times.
Doubling the debts since 2015
The US debt has doubled within a good ten years: from $ 18.2 trillion in 2015 to currently 36.6 trillion, as can be found on the website of the US Ministry of Finance. The US Congress’s budget authority assumes that the law “One Big Beautiful Bill”, which has recently passed by US President Donald Trump, could increase the US debt by another three trillion dollars by 2034.
Interest payments of one trillion dollar per year in sight
The interest burden grows accordingly. This year, the US government is expected to shell out $ 794 billion to its creditors. In the not too distant future, the interest payments could exceed the threshold of one trillion dollar a year. “There is little doubt that as a consequence of the law of the USA’s law, the USA will continue to grow rapidly,” says KfW chef economist Dirk Schumacher.
The US investment bank Goldman Sachs – a major power of the global financial industry – does not believe that the “Big Beautiful Bill” will dramatically increase US state debt. However, the US budget deficit with the current five to six percent is already so high that the bank’s specialists are concerned. The long -term fiscal prospects of the United States are in a “non -durable position”, warned the in -house economist Alec Phillips recently in a publication.
US inflation of 20 to 25 percent in the next decade?
The prominent economist Kenneth Rogoff – former head of the International Monetary Fund – expects a debt -related US inflation crisis with an inflation rate of 20 to 25 percent in the next five to seven years, as the scientist predicted in a recently published book (“Our dollar, your problem”) and several interviews.
Unicredit: “Small episodes” could have big consequences
In a newsletter, the major Italian bank Unicredit has already publicly thought about possible “subtle” forms that could accept US payment failures. Unicredit also excludes an United States inability to pay according to the extended pattern. However, the message was given that the United States had reduced their debt burden with “unorthodox means” since its foundation eight times. “In view of the size of the market for US state bonds, small and short-term episodes could already have globally massive financial effects,” wrote Edoardo Campanella, head of the Unicredit Denkfabrik “Investment Institute”.
“Evidence of no confidence” against US money policy
The DWS fund manager Thomas Schüßler, known in the German financial scene, sees dwindling confidence in the United States. It indicates three factors: the high interest rate of long -term US state bonds of around 4.3 percent, the devaluation of the dollar in the past few months and the increased gold price – the latter a traditional indication that investors are looking for a safe port. Schüßler calls these three factors in combination “the ultimate evidence of no confidence against American monetary policy”.
The DWS does not assume that the interest rate of ten years of US state bonds will increase sharply over the next twelve years. However, bond expert Oliver Eichmann does not consider that unsettled investors avoid US papers: “I would say a greater movement from US state bonds into other bond markets is a greater risk.”
Optimists are currently in the minority, but not extinct. The reinsurer Munich Re, who traditionally is considered a cautious company in the financial sector, looks comparatively unconditional. “The risk of keeping US state bonds is the ability and willingness of the US Ministry of finance to repay the debts,” says Nicholas Gartside, Chief Investment Officer of the Munich Dax Group. “These two factors are absolutely out of the question. US debts remain a safe harbor.”
The top manager does not attribute the current dollar weakness to the increase in US debt: “Other factors such as the interest difference to other countries and the relative growth expectations are much more important. For example, the growth expectations for the USA have been lower and higher for the euro zone since early 2025.”
The decline of the United States as a world power in sight?
Beyond the financial industry, some thinkers are already looking at the big picture. One of these is the historian Niall Ferguson at the US elite university Harvard. The professor is a specialist for the history of money and recently put up a “Ferguson law” in a conversation with Goldman Sachs: great powers that have to spend more money on paying their interest than for the military are therefore sentenced to decline.
The budget of the US military this year amounts to $ 956 billion and could soon be exceeded by the interest payments. “The story is full of examples of superpowers that were more expenses for debt service than for defense, and as a result was neither great nor powerful,” said Ferguson.
Congression Budget Office – Deficit Calculation by 2034 US Ministry of Finance – Current debt Development of US state debt – Time series of the US Finance Ministry of Corner Data of the US budget 2025 with military spending and guilt service
dpa
Source: Stern
