With the population of working age in recoil, the OECD raises a prolonged economic stagnation scenario if it does not act quickly.
The developed world faces a Demographic transformation which puts in check the very basis of economic growth: the workforce. This is warned of the OECD in its last employment panorama, where it warns that the population of working age has already decreased and will continue to fall during the next decades, with direct impacts on productivity, the GDP per capita and the fiscal sustainability.
“The real engine of growth is human resources,” says the report. With fewer people in a position to work and a rate of dependence on old age that will double around 2060, The economy of developed countries goes from a Employment shortage scenario to one of workers’ shortage. Of not mediating reforms, the growth of GDP per capita on the OECD could slowly be 40%, lowering 1% annual recordAdo between 2006 and 2019 to 0.6% to 2060.
The challenges and opportunities
Faced with this panorama, the OECD proposes a job activation strategy focused on four pillars: Young people, women, migrants and older workers. All of them represent underutilized talent reserves that can help compensate for demographic decline if they are actively included in the labor market.
In countries such as Spain, Italy or Greece, more than 15% of young people between 15 and 29 years old do not study or work. The recommendation is clear: to improve the quality of education, reduce school abandonment, expand training programs and encourage transition to employment.
In the case of womenthe gender gap in employment, wages and hours worked remains significant. Close that gap could contribute an additional 0.2% to the growth of annual GDP; If the time worked is also matched, that impact could double. To achieve this, the OECD asks for active policies such as salary equality, accessible nurseries, access to technological sectors and family working conditions.
China children
Photo: Reuters
As for migrantsalthough they already fulfill a key role in covering vacancies, the report suggests that a more ambitious immigration policy – with real integration and access to public services – could become a true “change of play” to sustain the workforce.
Finally, the role of the older workers: Extending the working life of older adults in good health not only relieves the load on the youngest, but also allows preserving experience and productivity in key sectors.
What role does AI have in employment
The report also addresses the potential of the artificial intelligencealthough cautiously. AI can be a useful tool to improve productivity, reduce the physical burden of some works and facilitate the labor inclusion of people with disabilities or older adults. However, the OECD warns that It is not a magical solution to the demographic problem: Without sufficient human capital, technology is not enough to sustain growth.
The OECD message is direct: Without concrete and urgent measures, population aging will imply a structural deceleration of economic growth in almost all developed countries. But there is also an opportunity: if it is possible to take advantage of underutilized talent and combine it with intelligent and inclusive policies, deterioration can be avoided and well -being can be maintained even in aging societies.
Source: Ambito
