Local analysts expect an advance of 1.9% inflation during the month of Juneafter what was the monthly brand of May 1.5%, the minor of the government of Javier Milei and the lowest since April 2020, during the Covid-19 Pandemia. The INDEC data will be announced on Monday, while the government digests the defeat in the Senate with key laws last week and has the elections in the immediate future, so the unknown goes through what the libertarian administration will do with the economic direction towards the end of the year.
According to the last reuters poll, the estimates of 15 Argentine and foreign economic analysts reflected an average advance of the same percentage for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) In the sixth month of the year. So far from 2025, the index was in January 2.2%, February 2.4%, March 3.7%, April 2.8%and May 1.5%.
The Gurúes speak: how much will the June inflation be
From C&T economic advisors pointed out that their IPC survey “presented a 2% monthly increase in June, slightly exceeding 1.8% in May (estimated by the consultant) and 1.5% that the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) He informed for that month. “However, they emphasize that” it was again the lowest since 2020 “.
The consultant also recalled that “May had been a month of inflation particularly low due to some factors that did not repeat itself in June.”
The number of most economic consultants
Regarding survey, The projections of the respondents ranged between a minimum variation of 1.4% and a maximum of 2% for the CPI in the middle of the year. “No disinflation process is linear, so it is natural to observe some month with a slightly higher inflation,” said Eugenio Marí, chief economist of the Freedom and Progreso Foundation (LYP).
“More when we think they are the first months after the exchange unification and that several relative prices are still looking for their balance,” Marí added.
On the other hand, for July the relievers foresee an IPC less than 1.9%. “As we are observing that the depreciation rhythm of our currency has been very low, We estimate that July will be slightly located below June. This would be unusual, as Julio is usually shown higher inflation, “said Aldo Abram, economist and executive director of LYP.
“But, to the extent that the depreciation of our currency is slowed, so does inflation. Therefore, we could expect a few tenths less, with a level close to 1.7% for the month of July,” he added.
The economist Daniel Marx He affirmed that he Consumer Price Index (CPI) June, which will be known tomorrow, will be around 2%and said that “that is progress.” “Inflation is expected about 2%. It is a progress regarding the values of a few months ago,” said former Secretary of Finance of the Government of Fernando de la Rúain statements to Radio Rivadavia.
However, the economist said that “there is a need to have stability and International standards”And he mentioned the example of international countries, which speak of 2% annual and not monthly.
Inflation accelerated in CABA: it was 2.1% in June and accumulated 15.3% in the first semester
For its part, inflation It accelerated again in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires (CABA). In Juneexceeded 2% driven by increases in rentals, transport, food and prepaid.
The Buenos Aires Statistics Institute reported that last month the city’s consumer price index (IPCBA) reached 2.1%. Thus, he failed to sustain the considerable deceleration experienced in May, when he had dropped to 1.6%.
Inflation inflation lacteous lactea prices consumption
Mariano Fuchila
In this way, Buenos Aires inflation accumulated 15.3% in the first semester and 44.5% year -on -year. The IPCBA is followed carefully as the first thermometer prior to the publication of the INDEC National IPCwhich this time will spread tomorrow. The consultants already discounted a rebound from inflation in June (In May, INDEC measured 1.5%) to a level close to 2% and, beyond using different baskets, The Buenos Aires index seems to come to ratify it.
The report of the Buenos Aires statistical body reflects a acceleration both in the prices of goods and in those of services. The former went from 0.8% in May to 1.4% in June and the latter accelerated from 2% to 2.6%.
The main containment barrier came from prices seasonalwhich in June rose only 1.2% in CABA, almost a point below the general index. While there was a considerable increase in aerial passages and tour packages, that was compensated by the Nominal low in vegetables, tubers and legumesof 1.4%.
Instead, the regulated prices climb 2.4% driven by increases in the quotas of the Prepaids and in the values of the ticket collective urban. They were followed in importance, adjustments in the tariffs of the private schools (initial, primary and secondary level) and in the Light rates.
Finally, the chapter IPCBA rest (A core inflation proxy) rose 2.2% last month.
Source: Ambito
