The economist specialized in international trade Federico Vaccarezza He argued that the fact that “Brazil does not grow, or grow less, because of Trump, It is a very bad fact for Argentina“. He explained that the country”You need a Brazil growing, and the more Brazil grows, the betterbecause it is the main destination of Argentine exports, and It is an important commercial partner in every way“
In fact, since 1991, Brazil is the largest commercial partner in an uninterrupted manner. Last year, 23% of Argentine imports were from that origin and 17% of exports were sent to that destination. It was the main destination of Argentine wheat and the production of the local automotive complex. In addition, about 38% of industrial exports were destined for Brazil.
To that is added that the main partner of Mercosur It is the second most relevant destination for services exports and the fourth origin of direct foreign investments (FDI) In the country, with a stock of more than $ S13.5 billion to the second semester of 2024.
Brazil with less growth: the risk for local industry
Vaccarezza explained to Scope that “A Brazil that grows less, buys less cars from Argentinawith what in turn generates less production and more dismissals in the automotive sector, added to more migration of automotive plants and more capital exit of Argentina. “
Another phenomenon to which the Argentine economy is exposed is that “if Brazil devalues its currency, it is not so much more what it will export to the United States, but that It drives its exports to Argentina, promoted much more by an appreciated exchange rate “ like the one the country has at this time. “Everything that has to do with the industrial sector and supplies for production, including automaker, will be the most beaten sectors,” he added.
Similarly, a report of Mediterranean Foundation The possible diversion of Brazilian exports raised a few days ago to compensate for the closure of the US market: “Commercial policy will be more active by Brazilian producers who will seek to place those products in alternative markets And in this framework It is expected that they look at the Argentine market as a destination for their production“
On this point, the text that carries the signature of the economist Gerardo Alonso Schwarz He argued that “the sectors with the greatest pressure for the possible competition generated by this trade deviation They are those oriented to the domestic market that already competed with some imported products And what are they claiming Soft credit lines for consumption, logistics improvements and reducing tax pressure to recover competitiveness. “
Could the US compensate for Brazil?
Vaccarezza said that “the products that Argentina exports to the United States and the products that Brazil exports to the United States are not easy to transpolar, there can be no reorientation of trade as fast as it could be in other cases.”
However, Yes, flesh and steel cited as possible exceptions. The first case only represented 3% of Brazilian exports to the US, while in the next, It was the second export to the North American country, with 14% of the total. “If the steel they bought from Brazil, they could buy it from Argentina, it would be very good to the Argentine steel sector in the internal situation that is today,” said the economist.
Similarly, the Javier Preciado agricultural consultant He supported this medium that from the agro -export sector there could not be a significant change in the short term. “On the issue of agriculture, Brazil, Argentina and the United States have very similar profiles, we are great producers and large exporters“
In turn, he dismissed, on the one hand, the increase in soybean export to the United States and, on the other, an important increase in the purchase of Argentine wheat by Brazil. “It would be 1 million tons more of wheat at most, they are approximately US $ 2550 million, it is nothing “he concluded.
Source: Ambito
