The commercial surplus grew AU $ S906 million in June, the highest figure of 2025. It happened so much for a monthly increase in exports, traction by the energy sector, and by a new drop in imports.
Indec reported Thursday that Argentina exported the world for US $ 7,275 million during the sixth month of the year, which implied a monthly rise of 4.4% and interannual of 10.8%.
When analyzing only the exported amounts, the increase with respect to May was even greater, of 8%. This was explained fundamentally by the sales of fuels and energy, in particular oil, which jumped 70%.
In this regard, Federico Berninieconomist from the Interdisciplinary Institute of Political Economics (IEP) of the UBAhe remembered Scope That in May the exports of energy had been located quite below what they had been observed previously, which was compensated in June, the best month in quite some time.
The impact of restoration of export withholdings
Regarding the impact of the restoration of withholdings in July, which could have encouraged higher sales in June, Bernini was cautious. In the first place, because the data showed that the rebound was not the power of primary products and manufactures of agricultural origin (which cover the products that began to pay withholdings from this month), but that it was more relevant in the aforementioned energy sector and in manufactures of industrial origin; Within this last item, a Annual duplication in gold shipments, largely for its high international price.
In addition, the specialist marked, a methodological issue must be taken into account. “In the INDEC data what we see are the dispatched products (that is, they left the country). The exporters had a temporary deadline to register the affidavit of foreign sales (DJVE) and avoid paying the export right. Many DJVE registered were recorded on the end of June, but we still did not see them in foreign trade data,” he said.
Beyond this recomposition in sales to other countries, Daniel Schteingart, Director of Productive Planning of Fundar, said that the exported amounts have been stagnant since 2008. “Difficult to think of the lean Argentine macroeconomy without stagnation in our dollar generation capacity,” he said.
Imports remained high, but they had a decrease per second month in line
In parallel, the Argentine Commercial Exchange Report (ICA) of INDECA US $ 6,370 million in imports During June. This value was 1.2% lower than Mayin unstacilities, which meant the second monthly setback to thread.
In dialogue with this medium, Gustavo Peregodirector of the consultant Abecebno surprise in this decrease of external purchases, mainly for three factors. On the one hand, for the specialist in international relations, During the first quarter many importers had advanced their operationsin the expectation of an exit of the stocks, something that ended up occurring partly in mid -April.
At the same time, he added that The government’s monetary policy, which seeks to dry the economy from pesos, puts a roof to the demand since “there is no money”. Finally, Perego highlighted the recent Competitiveness gain that the Argentine weight in front of the Brazilian Real had and the coins of other commercial partners, which cushions the relative cheaper that the goods and services of abroad have been exhibiting.
For its part, for Bernini this faint withdrawal of imports was not so associated with lower economic activity, although “it is not flying.” “In June you had a 9% exchange rate higher than in the first quarter. Imports of capital and intermediate goods are at stable but high levels“He deepened.
According to Indec, in the first semester the country registered a positive balance of US $ 2,788 million in its commercial balance. The result was quite lower than US $ 10,742 million of 2024.
Source: Ambito
