Customs conflict: what Trump’s tariffs cost – and who pays them

Since US President Donald Trump’s customs announcement for importing European products, many industries have been in the air. Will the tariffs really come? And what happens then? An overview.

Who exactly has to pay the tariffs?

There are several variants. The contract between the buyer and the seller essentially lists the exact concrete agreement. According to the US logistics industry, it can be that the customer pays all tariffs and taxes. There is also the way that the seller bears all of these costs. Third -party companies that take over the processing of import regulations can also be involved.

Who is moving in the tariffs?

A sub-authority of the US Department of Homeland Protection: The US Custom and Border Protection Authority Us Customs and Border Protection is responsible for approvals of imports.

What are the consequences of tariffs for German companies with customers or branches in the USA?

Customs generated uncertainty, says Christoph Schemionek, Managing Director of the German Chamber of Commerce Abroad in Washington. Germany is the third largest foreign direct investor in the United States. Trump’s announcement that companies that rely on stable framework conditions for significant problems. “This primarily affects the calculation of prices and long -term investment planning.” A short -term shift of the entire supply chains to the United States is unrealistic for many companies.

The consequences would be “serious, especially for German companies with tight USA connections,” says Dirk Jandura, President of the BGA export association. “The introduction of tariffs would be an economic shock.” Export high industries such as mechanical engineering, automotive, chemistry and electrical engineering would be particularly affected. Many jobs hung on the US business.

What effects could this have for consumers in Germany?

According to the BGA President Jandura, tariffs act like a tax. “Products are more expensive, which leads to a falling competitiveness. Indirect cost increases due to disturbed supply chains also strike prices for industrial and consumer goods in Europe.” At the same time, EU-tough tariffs would make US products in the German market more expensive. Companies are faced with a difficult choice: either they pass the additional costs or carry the load itself. However, this is hardly sustainable in the long run.

Antje Gerstein, Managing Director of European Policy at the German Trade Association, expects that US goods could have further indirect effects on the overall market. “Since an increased demand for alternatives would also increase their prices.”

How much money do the tariffs Trump bring?

The import duties give the Trump government billions. In the second quarter, customs revenues added up to around $ 64 billion, about 47 billion more than in the same period last year, the “Financial Times” reported on data from the US Ministry of Finance. US Finance Minister Scott Bessent recently calculated that he could take up more than $ 300 billion (around 258 billion euros) with import duties by the end of the year.

In the EU it is assumed that Trump needs customs income in order to redeem his tax reduction. Because with the controversial tax and expenditure law “Big Beautiful Bill Act”, which is supposed to boost the economy and has recently passed the congress, the US’s debt is likely to grow rapidly, says economists. In a good ten years, the government debts have already doubled: from $ 18.2 trillion to around $ 36.6 trillions in 2015, figures from the US Ministry of Finance show.

Why is that dangerous?

The state support bank KfW considers it conceivable that the debt ratio of the United States will climb around 120 percent of more than 170 percent of economic output from around 120 percent within ten years. For comparison: Greece was in debt with around 153 percent of gross domestic product in 2024, Germany with 63 percent.

Without countermeasures, the United States could get into a significantly stronger debt spiral than previously assumed – until investors could lose confidence in the United States, warns KfW chief economist Dirk Schumacher.